Strategic thinking against good players

[Heisenb3rg]

This is just a random peice of insight that really hit home to me today when I was playing a good player HU @ 5/10 after dropping 1500$ at 25/50 live, then quickly dropping 1500$ HU at 5/10 with a sick run of cards.

I realized after a while I was getting bluffed out of a lot of pots. However, it wasnt just when I had air that I was getting bluffed out. It was when I would appear meak and he would represent scare cards to fold out my ace high/low pair.

IE flop is AQ5, I c/c. turn is 7 , I c/c. if the river was anything but a King , he would give up his air. But he would also bluff a king correctly thinking that I would fold out a hand like 56.

It was then a strategic concept dawned on me.

When you are playing a good player, chances are high that he will be aware of your perception of his range and thus use scare cards to bluff you. It is then your job to asses how much "air" he can have in his range and assume he bluffs a large percentage of that.


6-max example:

you call a 28/18/2.0's buton raisers open in the BB with 67

Flop comes 57T, you c/r, he calls.
Turn comes A.

You can assume there will be a very high chance that he will bluff raise this card , or use it for a free showdown, because PFRs often have a very high Ax distribution and you as the defender should know that.
However, he'll probabily think this way whenever he sees the ace, no matter what he has. Since he has so much crap like K3s and the like, you have a very profitble bet/call down , or possibly even a 3-bet.

Instead, put this same solid player UTG and you have a lot more problems because A high is such a larger percentage of his range.. Depends on the player, but against a player who erred on the tighter side, youd probabily have to fold to a raise. (although I would not bet the turn against an UTG opener).

Summary:
Good players use scare cards to retake initaitve but often do not asses what % of their range will hit that scare card and what % of their range they should represent it with.
You can thus exploit them with this knowledge, finding tough folds in certain situations, pushing them off better air in others, and inducing bluffs in another.

Then you can go into levels.... and thats when the beauty of limit poker starts revealing itself.

[sethypooh21]

uhmmm SHHHHHHH....

[acehole60]

Well put. I'll think some more about that.

[sethypooh21]

Seriously though, the way to combat this is the screwplay. TAG CO raises, I defend with a5, flop comes xxx, I check/raise. Turn is A, GREAT spot for a screwplay against a thinking TAG, imo - I know I walk right into this one all the time. (Though some people use this line way too often and screwplay like 77 or KQ here...)

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously though, the way to combat this is the screwplay. TAG CO raises, I defend with a5, flop comes xxx, I check/raise. Turn is A, GREAT spot for a screwplay against a thinking TAG, imo - I know I walk right into this one all the time. (Though some people use this line way too often and screwplay like 77 or KQ here...)

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait, the flop came a non-5, right? There are lots of players where betting and calling down in that spot is MUCH better than screwplaying. I mean, its not like the guy's gonna fold better aces, but he sure might 3-bet you with them. You're also missing out on some of the power-bluff equity heisenberg was talking about (he might bet/fold UI big cards if you check, but he will raise them a lot and even sometimes bet the river, if you c-bet).

Against a tough player, I actually think it (screwplaying the turn in your example) is a better play with 77 or kq.

[Heisenb3rg]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seriously though, the way to combat this is the screwplay. TAG CO raises, I defend with a5, flop comes xxx, I check/raise. Turn is A, GREAT spot for a screwplay against a thinking TAG, imo - I know I walk right into this one all the time. (Though some people use this line way too often and screwplay like 77 or KQ here...)

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait, the flop came a non-5, right? There are lots of players where betting and calling down in that spot is MUCH better than screwplaying. I mean, its not like the guy's gonna fold better aces, but he sure might 3-bet you with them. You're also missing out on some of the power-bluff equity heisenberg was talking about (he might bet/fold UI big cards if you check, but he will raise them a lot and even sometimes bet the river, if you c-bet).

Against a tough player, I actually think it (screwplaying the turn in your example) is a better play with 77 or kq.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also dont like the screwplay against a solid player in this situation.

By checking the turn after check/raising the flop you are basically saying "I have a pair but im afraid of the ace or I have two pair or better and am planning to c/r u"

Basically neither of those thought processes fall in line with folding. Thus, I check behind a lot of turns or bet/fold them when I was planning to put in 2 bets anyway.
Only when I can REALLY credibly represent the ace would I bet it without an ace (need to suspect my opponent is considering a fold).

If you start playing mind games with your draws in this situation as well to balance it, maybe its okay.. But I prefer a b3b in most situations...

If I got sexyed and had an ace ill bet and happily call down... I was probabily planning to raise the turn bet anyway, so screwplaying just missed a bet vs me.

[sethypooh21]

On second thought, a bad example for screwplaying, I'll try to come up with a better one.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously though, the way to combat this is the screwplay. TAG CO raises, I defend with a5, flop comes xxx, I check/raise. Turn is A, GREAT spot for a screwplay against a thinking TAG, imo - I know I walk right into this one all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
i like how right after heisenb3rg posts that people bluff raise a turn ace too much, you tell him to SHHHH like he's letting out some awesome secret. then, you detail a line that is completely counterproductive to exploiting the tendency. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously though, the way to combat this is the screwplay. TAG CO raises, I defend with a5, flop comes xxx, I check/raise. Turn is A, GREAT spot for a screwplay against a thinking TAG, imo - I know I walk right into this one all the time. (Though some people use this line way too often and screwplay like 77 or KQ here...)

[/ QUOTE ]

I still don't understand the meaning of "screwplay."

[NinaWilliams]

[ QUOTE ]
I still don't understand the meaning of "screwplay."

[/ QUOTE ]

call flop raise and c/r the turn.