Is facing two bets cold = calling a checkraise?

[gobbledygeek]

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around something. When trying to protect my hand, is making an opponent face two bets cold (which they would be unlikely to call if they don't have the odds to chase their draw) equivalent to facing them with a checkraise (which they'll most likely call and therefore have a chance at busting my hand although they've now paid too much to see their draw)?

Example:

Preflop (10 players): Hero is SB with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
6 limpers, Hero raises, BB calls, everyone else calls

Flop (8 players, 16 SB): A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks (not sure if this is correct but it is unimportant to conversation), BB bets, 1 caller, Hero calls

Turn (3 players, 9.5 BB) K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Lets say caller has a T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and is therefore only on a gutshot draw; he'll fold facing 2 bets cold but will call a checkraise if already trapped for the first bet. So long as the gutshot caller puts 2 bets into the pot on the turn (which he doesn't have the odds to do) have I protected my hand equivalently regardless of whether this was by BB raising my lead or by me checkraising BB's lead? That is, even if gutshot caller is still in hand thanks to checkraise, and thus has a chance to bust my hand, do I really even care since it was a losing play by him?

[jackdaniels]

Once the pot reaches a certain size (big), you want to maximize your chances of winning it right then an dhtere. Thus, making an opponent face 2 bets and fold is better than trapping him for an extra bet (even if he isn't getting the right odds to call in either situation, which he would in this case actually).

I consider a 10BB pot to be big enough.

[Hair_of_the_Dog]

It is very difficult to protect your hand using a c/r from the SB when the BB is showing aggression. I guess you could donk bet the turn and hope the BB raises. This would approximate the effect of a c/r. It would cause the last two opponents to have to call 2 bets (6.25:1). The only problem is that the raise may be coming from an AQ, but that would probably have to be based on a read of BB. He called a raise pf and raised the flop so he may have Ax, KQ, QJ or 44. I would put more weight on an Ax, but I don't know how this player plays or his range of hands on this.

You have a pretty strong hand, but also a scary board. A lot of people play JT. You haven't shown much aggression yet (some pf) it might be time to fire one off and see what happens.

[gobbledygeek]

In the checkraise case, while each individual call by the gutshotter had the correct odds (10.5:1 and 14.5:1, respectively) hasn't he made an overall mistake on the turn by putting in 2 bets into a 13.5 pot?

And while I'd love to lead and get raised by the BB to force out the gutshotter, in a passive 2/4 B&M game I'm much more likely just to get called by the BB and thus end up giving the gutshotter correct odds of 11.5:1 to chase.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
hasn't he made an overall mistake on the turn by putting in 2 bets into a 13.5 pot?.

[/ QUOTE ]

in terms of effective odds(assuming he can't make it up in implied odds should he hit his hand) he has possibly made a mistake, but in terms of immediate odds he has not.

both should be viewed as separate occurrences as they are separate decisions. in other words, not really. sometimes you can't avoid someone from drawing profitably, you just need to make money from the advantage your holding has over the % of the time the draw doesn't hit.

[jackdaniels]

[ QUOTE ]
In the checkraise case, while each individual call by the gutshotter had the correct odds (10.5:1 and 14.5:1, respectively) hasn't he made an overall mistake on the turn by putting in 2 bets into a 13.5 pot?

And while I'd love to lead and get raised by the BB to force out the gutshotter, in a passive 2/4 B&M game I'm much more likely just to get called by the BB and thus end up giving the gutshotter correct odds of 11.5:1 to chase.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure about your first question. I think you have to evaluate each bet at the time that it is made and a C/R would give an opponent correct odds to call each time he is faced with a bet. I would like to hear more from other posters on this.

As for part 2, unfortunately you are correct. It is likely impossible for you to make your gutshot holding opponent face 2 bets (unless BB already has you beat and is raising your bet with a made str8 or a better 2 pair). I was addressing the general question of how to deal with situations where opponents have gutshot type hands. In those, if you can make them face 2 bets (to induce a fold), it is correct to do so if the pot is big enough (cause you want to take it down asap). As you described the hand, I woudl still bet so that it doesn't get checked through providing Ax a freeroll to 2 pair.

[gobbledygeek]

[ QUOTE ]

in terms of effective odds(assuming he can't make it up in implied odds should he hit his hand) he has possibly made a mistake, but in terms of immediate odds he has not.

both should be viewed as separate occurrences as they are separate decisions. in other words, not really.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what is screwing with my head. Assuming no more bets go in on the river (i.e. no making it up with implied odds), on the turn Mr. Gutshot is paying a total of 2 bets to win 13.5 bets already in the pot, something that is only going to happen 1 in 11.5 times. Why should it matter whether he did this via cold calling 2 or via calling a check raise, he's still losing the exact same amount due to this play long term, no?

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

in terms of effective odds(assuming he can't make it up in implied odds should he hit his hand) he has possibly made a mistake, but in terms of immediate odds he has not.

both should be viewed as separate occurrences as they are separate decisions. in other words, not really.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what is screwing with my head. Assuming no more bets go in on the river (i.e. no making it up with implied odds), on the turn Mr. Gutshot is paying a total of 2 bets to win 13.5 bets already in the pot, something that is only going to happen 1 in 11.5 times. Why should it matter whether he did this via cold calling 2 or via calling a check raise, he's still losing the exact same amount due to this play long term, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

but in one case he is theoretically profitable and in the other he is not.

[gobbledygeek]

"Theoretically profitable"? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I have to admit, I'm still lost on this one. I've kinda convinced myself that if I force Mr. Gutshot to put two bets into this size pot on the turn (regardless of how I do it) that he is making a mistake. By forcing him to make a mistake, is that what "protecting" my hand is about?

In 2/4 (and assuming no implied odds so no bets on the river), either way there's 13.5 BB = $54.00 in the pot on the turn for Mr. Gutshot to fight for (i.e. pay 2 BB = $8.00 to see the river, whether cold calling or calling a bet and a checkraise). If we play this turn 115 times, 105 times he'll lose his $8.00 (-$8.00 x 105 = -$840.00); 10 times he'll win what's in the pot ($54.00 x 10 = $540.00); for a net loss over 115 hands of $300.00. Where am I screwing up?

[Hyperrrprank]

You're not. This is clearly defined in an earlier part of the game. All good players will play slightly looser from late position, specifically because the weaker hands can be profitable for 1 bet but not against a raise. When someone puts in one bet NOT KNOWING IF THERE WILL BE A RAISE BEHIND THEM they are risking having to pay too much for their draw. This is confusing only because you've got competing desires: one to see them fold and one to see them put money into the pot with an unlikely draw. Making them pay 2 bets for a hand that is only worth 1 is a profitable play, but it doesn't force them to fold because they are playing each bet as a separate incident. Anyone who is calculating their odds purely on the bets visible and not thinking about the possibility of a raise behind them is taking a risk, capitalize.