Bubble satellite hand

[Toro]

This was a hand from Monday's $300 shootout at Foxwoods. It's essentially a 10 handed one table sattelite with the top three going on to the main tourney later in the day.

We are down to 4 players and it's 300/600 blinds 75 ante:

Seat 4: Me with 6600 chips (SB)
Seat 5: Decent player with 9300 (BB)
Seat 7: Below average player with 4900
Seat 8: Good player with 4200

Seat 7 who had been doing a ton, limps in, seat 8 folds, I complete with 67o and the BB checks.

Flop: 8 9 T (rainbow)

I check, BB checks and Seat 7 quickly says all-in.

Action is to me: call or fold?

[registrar]

Below average in the sense that he would open push the flopped nuts in the face of weakness? Or in the sense that he's open limping j7? If neither apply, or apply very often, call. I mean, call anyway - the degree of joyousness with which you do may vary.

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
Below average in the sense that he would open push the flopped nuts in the face of weakness? Or in the sense that he's open limping j7? If neither apply, or apply very often, call. I mean, call anyway - the degree of joyousness with which you do may vary.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he wasn't that bad that he would go all-in with QJ or limp with J7.

[TheFoxNL]

then its a defenite call

[Toro]

Suppose you put the guy on JT. You're about 70% favorite against JT. Would you still call? Remember, we don't have to win this, only finish in top 3.

[registrar]

I think the blinds are too big for our overall skill edge to be greater than our edge in this hand.

[Prime Time]

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you put the guy on JT. You're about 70% favorite against JT. Would you still call? Remember, we don't have to win this, only finish in top 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.
You are probably in the lead.
But a fold is correct, as you are still better than 70% to get seat.

[whynot?]

if your not going to play this then why limp ever?

i personally think limping on the bubble in a satellite is just wrong - all it does is spew chips and often you fold with a hand that is the best

this is a fold pre everyday

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you put the guy on JT. You're about 70% favorite against JT. Would you still call? Remember, we don't have to win this, only finish in top 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.
You are probably in the lead.
But a fold is correct, as you are still better than 70% to get seat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stacks if we fold:

Seat 4: Me with 6300 chips M=3.5
Seat 5: Decent player with 8700 M=10
Seat 7: Below average player with 5800 M=3 ish
Seat 8: Good player with 4200 M=2.4

If we accept that villain is unlikely to ever be ahead here - he's not limping the second nuts pre-flop and not pushing the nuts on the flop, then I can't see how our edge could ever be great enough (with blinds:stacks as they are) to fold here. We're 70% agaisnt JT and probably 75% agaisnt his whole range. I don't see how we there is enough room to play if we fold that overall edge is >75%.

[4CardStraight]

if we flop the third nuts and fold, why the heck did we complete?

I fold preflop.