Problem with your book

[master_hellmuth]

Holla, I just started reading your book "Small Stakes Hold
'em" by Ed Miller, David Sklansky, and Mason Malmuth. And was sent to this website by the back. On Page 40, Miller talks about "Random and Independent Events." He seems to be suggesting that it is just as likely to not complete a flush draw 20 times in a row as it is tont compelte a fush draw 1 times. This is not rihgt, the odds of you missing a flushes 20 times in a row is much lower than missing it just 1 tim. It would be like roling a 3 sided die 20 times in a row. The odds of not rloling a 1 are much higher if you roll it once, than if you roll it 20 times. Anyone want to explain this?

[mmbt0ne]

After you've missed the flush draw the 19th straight time, there is the same probability you miss it the 20th time as you miss it once. In other words, the 19 previous times you missed have nothing to do with the 20th.

[icemanjmw]

For what my opinion is worth, I believe you are misreading that, although admittedly it has been a while since I read that part so I don't remember it exactly.
I believe he states that even if you missed the flush 20 times before, you are no more likely to complete the flush the 21st time. Some players believe they are "due" becuase they haven't hit a flush all night they believe that the next time they are going to hit it.

[master_hellmuth]

But that doesn't make any sense. The odds of missing it 20 times in a row are very low. Are you telling me that if you miss a flush draw 99 times in a row by some crazy strike of probality, on the 100th time its the same chance? If that was true, than probability wouldn't work. I used to be a roulette player in the casino, I won some, and lost some, but overall I'm up. The reason why is I knew to only bet colors, and only bet a color that hadn't come up in a while, because the odds of red not coming up 10 times in a row are low. Why do you think they have a history chart at the tables?

[obsidian]

[ QUOTE ]
But that doesn't make any sense. The odds of missing it 20 times in a row are very low. Are you telling me that if you miss a flush draw 99 times in a row by some crazy strike of probality, on the 100th time its the same chance? If that was true, than probability wouldn't work. I used to be a roulette player in the casino, I won some, and lost some, but overall I'm up. The reason why is I knew to only bet colors, and only bet a color that hadn't come up in a while, because the odds of red not coming up 10 times in a row are low. Why do you think they have a history chart at the tables?

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow...just wow. Seriously man, this is very basic probability. History has no affect on future outcome. This is true for both poker and roulette. Just be happy you have gotten lucky in roulette.

Oh, and they have a history chart at the tables to make people such as yourself think it matters.

[master_hellmuth]

If history doesn't matter than why does probability work? Why don't flipped coins just always come up heads? Obviously history matters, because in the long run (which is in the book as well), it all evens out.

Anyway, other than that, good book so far.

[Guthrie]

[ QUOTE ]
I used to be a roulette player in the casino, I won some, and lost some, but overall I'm up.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you're not.

[icemanjmw]

True, but you have to realize the long is infinity, not 20 spins of the wheel, or 50 hands of poker, or even 1 million flips of a coin. The long run is very long.
Don't take this the wrong way, but your belief in your theories are exactly why casinos make billions of dollars a year.

[ChrisAJ]

History is only an accounting of the probable number of things that have already happened.

[master_hellmuth]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I used to be a roulette player in the casino, I won some, and lost some, but overall I'm up.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you're not.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love the internet. People can make any statement they want, no matter how rude or dumb, safely behind their computer screen. Do you know me? I don't think so. Then you have no idea how much I've won or lost. And I've won. Three weeks ago, I won like $400 in one night playing smart roulette, but whatever.