Likely a bluff?

[AngelicPenguin]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button was a LAG (not terribly so)
SB had just sat down, but I had noticed him bet/fold an A high flop vs the PFR

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ?

Does hero need to show this down with his draw vs an unknown? Or do we wait for a read? I don't think he has spades, since I think we would hear from him on the flop (donk, or C/R once button folds), so I think we have at least 4 clean outs (probably more like 6 or 7)

-Matthew

[Kwaz]

I'd probably just let it go now. You're drawing slim to dead often.

[F Paulsson]

If you've seen him b/f a flop, then that's indicative of something at least. I don't like a raise, because if he's bluffing we don't want to shut him down - although it's vaguely plausible that he'd fold a hand like 65 here.

So... You get 3-1 on a showdown, and let's pretend it's 6 outs. Of the 3-1, you will then improve about 13% of the time, meaning that you need him to bluff about 20% of the time for the calldown to be correct. There may be an extra bet in implied odds for when you hit your draw, but then again he will give up on bluffs some portion of the time, as well as raise you with his trips/FH a portion of the time as well.

I think it's close. But I hate to call the river UI, and I really don't like to call the turn if I can't stomach a river call, so I would probably just fold. Maybe it's close enough that the extra information warrants a calldown. But I don't know all that many people that bluff-donk a paired board 20% of the time.

I keep contradicting myself. I have to stop that.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

WTF does the villain have here? If he had Qx, he would probably donk the flop, and if he didnt do this, then he would probably check-call the turn. If he had Tx, he would probably checkraise the turn. I dont get what this guy has, becuz he has shown nothing but weakness on two streets here.

In this situation I am either raising the turn and checking the river or im just calling down. I would raise the turn against an opponent who is capable of bet/folding here with a hand like 5x or 77. Against other opponents I would just call down and encourage them to bluff their broken draw on the river.

I believe there is a high enough chance that the hero has the best hand here to warrant a 2 big bet investment from the turn on, which is why I would either raise the turn and check the river or call down. In most cases calling down will be the better line becuz the hero will usually have 0% fold equity and by just calling the turn the hero can opt to fold the river if a bad card like a 9s hits.

[BostonMetro]

I fold. Players will do this with a ten because the board is so draw heavy. The don't want you to check behind with AJ or AK and get a free river ... and they know you'll give action till showdown with top pair. Also, they will do it with a queen. Here, you are getting 5-1 immediately and might be drawing at only your gutshot outs.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold. Players will do this with a ten because the board is so draw heavy. The don't want you to check behind with AJ or AK and get a free river ... and they know you'll give action till showdown with top pair. Also, they will do it with a queen. Here, you are getting 5-1 immediately and might be drawing at only your gutshot outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have at least 10 outs here always. No one donks the turn with a 10 here, the 1/2 players would c/r this, cause they are fancy.

Folding the turn here is bad.

If I'm playing here, I'm calling the turn, and I'm calling the river if it's an A, K, or brick, and raising a J.

If the river is a 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I fold about never.

What is all this talk about turn folding here?

[TomBrooks]

I call.

[zephed]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably just let it go now. You're drawing slim to dead often.

[/ QUOTE ]
While I don't think we are ahead very often, we are often behind to pocket pairs/Q's/5's and not only trip tens. I wouldn't rule out the occasional flush draw either.

[Necromancer]

yeah he is probably bluffing AND We might be ahead AND there are plenty of ways to improve. All these are valid reasons to call or raise for a free SD etc.


BUT its only a 4 bb pot!! I am letting this guy donk the flush and take down a 4bb pot with his rag bluff. Then next time he does this and I have a hand I am gonna get that 4bb back and take another 4 of his.....and say UL in the chat. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah he is probably bluffing AND We might be ahead AND there are plenty of ways to improve. All these are valid reasons to call or raise for a free SD etc.


BUT its only a 4 bb pot!! I am letting this guy donk the flush and take down a 4bb pot with his rag bluff. Then next time he does this and I have a hand I am gonna get that 4bb back and take another 4 of his.....and say UL in the chat. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

there are 5BB in the pot. You have 10 outs here like 95% of the time. You need to be getting 4-1 to call.

That being said, I think I'm winning against a normal 2/4 player here when they take that line. They never have a T. Q would bet the flop, or c/r the flop. When they donk there, sometimes they have 88, or 5x, but most of the time they have Ax [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or just some random fish donk hand.

Even if he turns over a 5, you should call here. I'd never fold against a person I labeled as laggish.

I really don't get all this fold talk. YOu have a good UI hand if you choose to call down, but besides that, "if" you are behind, you have 10 outs here. People that fold this here are going to get run over in 6 max.

Call turn, call a river, unless its like the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]


Also, if all he has is 5x, you have 12 outs, not 10.