Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn

[AtticusFinch]

This is exactly the situation I was hoping for in my post on the flop. I put in a pot-sized semi-bluff raise, 'cause it sure looks like someone made their hand with that card, and after my check-behind on the flop, it looks like it's me. I then call any reraise knowing I have about a billion outs.

Smooth-calling is also a possibility, although it could induce a big check-raise from MJ. Assuming no check-raise, I'd find out for sure whether I have the best hand, and might collect a little more from an overcall.

The trouble with calling is that even if I end up making my hand on the river, I might not get any more action, as the board will be seriously scary at that point.

All in all I like a raise best.

[Koyunbaba]

This is sticky. Things going for this situation. I've got lots of outs. Against. I'm caught in a sandwich positionally. MJ could be done with the hand, he might not be. That's a problem. The CO has got chips to burn and can bust my ass if I push and miss. That's another problem. I hate to fold because of the position problem, but I'm not jammin this pot just yet either. I know it's weak but I'm just gonna call and gamble that MJ isn't going to push and squeeze me out of the pot. I'm not married to this hand either. If MJ pushs and the CO folds Im gone too. Still plenty of chips left and time to play.

Yours Koy

[Proofrock]

Let's start with hand ranges:

MJ: He called from the SB, then checked the flop and checked the turn. Any made hand would need to have bet at least once by now, since slowplaying on this board into two players is suicide. This is given weight by his reputation as being aggressive (is this true? i'm ashamed to admit I don't know Miami John, so I have no idea how he plays.). Unless he's making a very strange move, I figure we can count him out of this hand.

CO: CO probably doesn't have a set -- why would he check the flop? Since he's a tight player and there are two others in the hand, he would probably bet the flop with a set, especially since there is a draw out there. Given the previous action, he didn't turn the set either. Given his description as being tight, I doubt he bets a naked draw here, especially given there are two other people in the hand. So this leads me to believe CO has one of the following hands: QJ, Q10, QK, KJ, or maybe J10.

Hero's options are to either call or raise.
Call:
Pro = good pot odds (~2 1/3 to 1, while against most of villain's hand range we're about 38% to win the hand). Also, in the off chance MJ wants to stay in the hand, this will make it easier for him to call. Since we're only staying in on the river if we hit our draw, we welcome his presence in this pot.
Con = unlikely to get much more out of Villain if one of our draws hits (unless we're behind).
Raise:
Pros - Villain's likely holdings aren't really premium hands, so we have a good deal of fold equity (especially since Villain is tight). I expect him only to reraise with KJ or maybe Q-10. Also, a raise here disguises our hand, making it likely that a larger river bet will get paid off.
Con - It would sure suck to get reraised when we could have drawn to our hand cheaply. We are exactly 3:1 underdog against KJ, but less than a 2:1 underdog against Q-10. Also, if Villain calls our raise and the river is a brick, we're in a tough spot. Any significant raise on the turn would be roughly half of our stack, so if Villain calls the turn he isn't going anywhere on the river.

I have homework to do, so I'm not going to do the math. However, I think it's a close decision. Given position, my monster draw, and fold equity, I would probably raise to ~t4500. Assuming I check/fold the river unimproved (like I said, if he calls this raise he's not going anywhere for what will be a less than 1/2 pot bet), it seems that this raise is more +EV than calling (depending on how much of a value bet Villain would be willing to call). Though I'm in bad tournament shape if Villain calls and I lose, I still have more than 20 BBs, so I'm not crippled.

If Villain raises, I vomit, kick myself in the balls, and push the rest of my chips in.

-cj

[HoldingFolding]

1 hand, 300+ posts and we've only just reached the turn with the experts' analysis still to come. This has all the makings of a book - one hand per chapter.

Now I've got some vacation reading, well-played Lloyd.

[TomHimself]

[ QUOTE ]
1 hand, 300+ posts and we've only just reached the turn with the experts' analysis still to come. This has all the makings of a book - one hand per chapter.

Now I've got some vacation reading, well-played Lloyd.

[/ QUOTE ]who are the expert panel? or is it a secret

[Hotrod0823]

Well it looks like we got what we wanted. With nut flush and OESD outs the turn helps us.

We are drawing but have many outs. I think I flat call here rather than raise and see the river some what cheaply.

[NoahSD]

First thing to ask, IMHO, is "is this a bluff or semibluff?" Both are unlikely as the board is draw heavy, two opponents are in, and our read on CO is tight. I doubt he's betting 44-88 on this scary board either, but I'll throw in 88 to represent the small chance that he does. Of course, Harrington says to always give someone 10% chance of bluffing, and though I don't think it's likely here, I'll oblige. I also think his check on the flop doesn't tell us much, as he probably expected us to bet. So, hands in CO's preflop range that are betting here are something like:

KJ(12), QJ (9), TJ (9), 99(3), TT(3), 33(3), QT(9), KT(12), 89c(1), 88(6), 9T(9)
10% chance of bluffing is taken into account by adding all combos 56 suited, and 5c6s, 5s6h, 5s6d, 5d6c, for a total of 8 bluffing hands.

Against this range, we're a little worse than a 3-2 dog. We're getting better than 2-1 to call, and since MJ's declined to bet a draw-heavy board twice, we can assume that the -EV from a raise is more than countered by implied odds from CO (and maybe him) and the extra pot odds we get if he calls.

But what about raising? Any reasonable raise here would have to be a push, so if we raise, we push. Our stack now has 10.9k, so it'll be 9400 back to CO. The pot'll have 3k + 1950 + 9.4k = t14350 in it. Let's say CO instantly folds all of his bluffs (8), 88 (6), and TK(12). We're laying him 1.53:1, so he needs to think he has 18 outs to call on a draw. His "drawing" hands have that many, so he'll fold them, or TJ(9) and 89c (1). I'll be pessimistic and assume he calls with QJ or better. That means he's folding 38/84 = ~45% of hands.

Against his calling range, we're 31/69.

So, 45% of the time, we end with t14350. 55% of the time he calls. When he calls, we end up with t0 69% of the time and t23750 31% of the time. So, our total (not net) cEV on the play is .45 * 14350 + .55*(.31*23750 + 0) = t10506.

Thus, this play is clearly -cEV given my assumptions. Given that this is a tourny and this play risks our entire stack, I think this play is -EV (if not -cEV) given any reasonable assumptions. Thus, calling is correct.

[HoldingFolding]

Caveat: I have no experience of high buy-in B&M tourneys, so I'm looking at this as a high buy-in PP MTT.

Let's review CO's actions. A tight player limps from the CO, to me that means small PP, hoping to flop a set, perhaps suited connectors looking for a cheap flop. He calls the raise which again leans me towards the small PP.

He checks the flop. Would he do this with the T9 out there? He's got to assume either one or both his opponents are holding overcards. However, he may also believe that the preflop aggressor will likely bet into this flop thus giving him the opportunity to check raise. This plan goes amiss when our hero checks. Now the scarey queen arrives and he realises he has to make a move. I don't think he'd do this with a smaller pair that hadn't hit or, say, 98. Nicely weighted bet too.

In other words, despite not betting the flop I think he has a made hand. 33/T9 or possibly JT (99 would raise pre flop). His range for us includes only draws and overpairs the only ones he needs to worry about being QQ, TT & possibly 99. I think if we raise he'll reraise us all in, I also think he'd call our all in bet.

I call, hoping for a scarey card on the river, with which to dislodge him, but if a blank comes, I'll be content to play on with 9,000+ chips.

The problem is MJ; I haven't got a clue what he's got [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] and if he comes over the top, I'm pretty certain I can't call, especially given his solid poker playing profile.

[Iconoclastic]

I'm happy to see that the original Hero took the same line I would have preflop and on the Flop...anyways

My original range for CO was [JJ-22,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-A3o,KTo+,QJo,JTo]

After checking the F and betting the T his range has been narrowed to [TT-99, 33, A3s, A9s, ATs, AQs, AJs, AKs, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A3o, A9o, ATo, AQo, AJo, AKo, KTo+, QJo, JTo]. He will call/raise a reraise with 20% of that range [TT, 99, KJo/s, T9, 33]) , so equity wise assuming I reraise the pot and MJ is folding:

CO: Fold= +3450 (80% of the time)
Calls/Pushes= -5000 (20% of the time)
Simplified EV= +1760 (very good compared to the nearly neutral EV play of calling) Of course, MJ is far from certainly folding. Now let's deal with MJ...

My original range for MJ was [22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AQo +]. After checking the Flop and Turn it has been narrowed to everything except [TT,99,33,T9s,KJo/s]. There's a 10% chance he's utilizing game theory and playing his set/twopair/straight too passively.

If you call there's a chance MJ will take it for weakness and raise as a bluff. But if you reraise the Turn it will be very hard for him to do that and he will probably fold 90% of the time.

Conclusion: Raise to 5000. This is heavily predicated on the Hero's read that CO is Tight which means he will fold a high enough percentage of hands to make a raise the best EV. And there's no reason to call a Push either because you have around 11.5 outs (a few outs are counterfeit when an opponent has a good enough hand to Push) so that's about 25% and after a pot reraise a Push would require you to call 5900 into a pot of 23750 which is about 25%. Being that having 5900 chips with blinds at 100-200 is perfectly comfortable, that neutral EV play should be avoided.

BTW Lloyd: who are the experts and when are they going to chime in? They're already a few streets late

[kuro]

I'm just curious about what Sossman's image is like here.

I'm not likely to raise KJ here preflop or to slow play a set or an overpair against multiple callers on an even semi-coordinated board so it's hard for me to imagine that someone would believe me if I were to suddenly semi-bluff the turn here. Would it be consistent at all with his play for him to have a set or the straight here? Would CO have seen enough of his play to know if it's consistent or inconsistent?