Flopping the nuts and folding (PL)

[neverforgetlol]

Here's the two hands I was against:

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
666 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 2d3d6d
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
AdKd3h9h 51.54% 0 652 0 0 69
Qc7c4h5h 2.59% 0 0 0 33 3
AsAc5c7s 45.87% 6 14 0 561 72


hah! So in this case I can never win the low, but rarely MP (AA57) can win high. So I would have been freerolled, without freerolling him back.

[Buzz]

neverforgetlol - CO probably has the low, maybe a low straight, maybe holding A45X. If so, then it's about 13.8 to 1 that if Villain holds A45X, then Villain doesn't have a straight flush. Far enough out of the question so that Hero should largely disregard it.

Aside from the straight flush, the big danger to a flopped ace-high flush is the board pairing with the subsequent making of a full house for an opponent. it would be even more of a blunder for Hero to allow this than to fold here.

From Hero's perspective, if we give Villain A45X, the board will pair about two times out of five. If so, and if MP has flopped a set, or even two pairs then allowing MP to stay in the hand cheaply would be a blunder.

I don’t think Hero should fold his nut flush, but I don’t think Hero should just call either. Thus I think Hero should raise. Villain bet $4 into a $12.50 pot? Hero should raise to $24.50 with the object of knocking out MP.

The raise should knock out MP if MP is holding a set or two pairs. At least MP will not have favorable odds to draw. The raise might also knock out CO if CO's hand is not as good as A45X. It’s damned hard for anybody to continue to your pot sized bet unless they have the straight flush.

Since I figured all this (took me several hours – whew) you posted the hands. As it turned out MP didn’t have a set and would probably have folded his second nut low with a pair of aces. As it turned out, CO might also have folded his low straight. But I don’t think we play results. The raise is correct, in my humble opinion, unless you’re up against a flopped straight flush (and in that case, you eat it). You’re risking a huge amount to win the $16.50 in the pot, but I think you have favorable odds (+e.v., if you like).

Plus I see both Phil and Ness agree with me, always a good sign.

Buzz

[jobber123rd]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the two hands I was against:

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
666 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 2d3d6d
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
AdKd3h9h 51.54% 0 652 0 0 69
Qc7c4h5h 2.59% 0 0 0 33 3
AsAc5c7s 45.87% 6 14 0 561 72


hah! So in this case I can never win the low, but rarely MP (AA57) can win high. So I would have been freerolled, without freerolling him back.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can win half of the low. Don't the times that you will get 3/4 (~10%) against these hands more than make up for the ~2% where you get scooped?

[neverforgetlol]

It says I can tie low, not win low. Read the oolumns carefully.

[neverforgetlol]

Buzz, thanks for the comments. I agree I played this hand poorly, and that a raise is best. But that's what this forum is for, posting well played hands and terribly played hands as well.

[jobber123rd]

[ QUOTE ]
It says I can tie low, not win low. Read the oolumns carefully.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly what I'm saying. Tying low = Winning half of the low = Winning 3/4 of the pot (since there's no way for you to win just the low against these two hands and I don't believe that you can all get the low (in which case you'd get 2/3 of the pot)).

You have a much better shot at taking a piece of the low than getting beaten out of the high. Otherwise you wouldn't have >50% equity. You are in a lot better shape here than you think...

[NT!]

this is just an absolutely brutal fold in a 3-way pot. what nobody has mentioned yet is that, depending on CO's raising standards, it is no guarantee that this flop hit him hard. if he is nitty it's almost impossible for him to have both a set and the nut low, and there is a made flush out there.

i don't want to be results-oriented because i've seen the hands, but a lot of the raising hands really DON'T like this flop all that much. (A2 or A3 with big cards, AA with anything other than a 4, etc). basically, if he didn't flop the nut low there are very few hands that can withstand a lot of pressure on the flop and turn if the board doesn't pair, because you have the two biggest flush cards and a lot of other low hands are counterfeited here.

plus, he made a weak bet into a raised pot, which often says he doesn't love his hand.