BDFD + BDSD How many outs? (T9s)

[fretelöo]

I don't think the actual stats will matter. As the hand played out, the final pot was 13BB. Let's take 15BB as the average winning pot.

Now, NOT raising PF gives you a 15BB pot if you win. 3betting will give you a 17.5BB pot. That's a 16% increase.
3betting pf means, you pay 50% than you had to, though, with the potential of it being capped by BB, which would mean a whopping 100% increase in pre-flop cost.

[fabadam]

[ QUOTE ]
My pokerstove is still calculating...
Actual stats on the players were:
UTG+2 17.2/3.1 64 hands
MP1 84/3.7 81 hands
MP3 26.5/2 49 hands
BB 42.9/12.3 65 hands

What does that "monte carlo" mean in pokerstove?

[/ QUOTE ]

Monte Carlo does a Monte Carlo simulation, which is a scientific term meaning: "just deal an enormous bunch of hands under the given restrictions, and see what comes out"

You should use it whenever you are using big tranges of hands in PokerStove. This is a good case for Monte Carlo -- you can just cut it off when the figures stop changing a lot.

[TJO]

With my stats I'm getting 19.3%. Maybe that's enough with the implied odds. I'd be great if Eskimo would come here to explain this to us or Point Blank.

edited to add: and we have position to most of the field.

[fretelöo]

19.3 means you hold your own. You don't have an edge. Generally, you raise because you win more than your fair share and want to make sure they put the money in the pot before they realize that they missed.

3betting MIGHT give you a slight fold-equity edge blablub, but I'm sceptical that it's enough... I must be missing something. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the actual stats will matter. As the hand played out, the final pot was 13BB. Let's take 15BB as the average winning pot.

Now, NOT raising PF gives you a 15BB pot if you win. 3betting will give you a 17.5BB pot. That's a 16% increase.
3betting pf means, you pay 50% than you had to, though, with the potential of it being capped by BB, which would mean a whopping 100% increase in pre-flop cost.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is really really wrong.

by bloating the pot everyone stays in with marginal hands postflop, it has an exponential effect on pot size.

we have equity to pump it and we also have a black/white hand.

postflop we will know exactly where we stand, we either hit, hit our draw, or can get out. compare this to a hand like KJo that may get stuck for many bets on a flop of Jxx against better hands.

[James.]

i raise pf the first time around, probably as often as half the time, ESPECIALLY if it'll buy the button.

i give you 2.5-3 outs on the flop.

[bung]

[ QUOTE ]
we have equity to pump it

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain...not sure I understand how T9s has enough equity to 3-bet pre-flop

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the actual stats will matter. As the hand played out, the final pot was 13BB. Let's take 15BB as the average winning pot.

Now, NOT raising PF gives you a 15BB pot if you win. 3betting will give you a 17.5BB pot. That's a 16% increase.
3betting pf means, you pay 50% than you had to, though, with the potential of it being capped by BB, which would mean a whopping 100% increase in pre-flop cost.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is really really wrong.

by bloating the pot everyone stays in with marginal hands postflop, it has an exponential effect on pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. And they will hit with their marginal hands, too. You're just giving them odds to draw to their Qx flush/straight.
Also, that everyone stays just because it's a monster pot, is nothing more than a myth nowadays, imho. They draw to whatever they're drawing and then they fold. Exactly because you have a black-and-white hand you won't make extra money because playing it doesn't involve extra skill. It's just a matter of math.

Seriously. I'm very open to hard evidence that with more than x players, 3betting with the higher SCs is +EV. But what you presented so far is not enough...

Edit: Raising the first time makes sense, though.

[fretelöo]

One more edit: I'm not saying we're losing money 3betting. I just don't know that we gain anything in the long run, though.

[Set_Wenker]

People are going to try and draw out anyway regardless of the odds. So it seems to me it's better NOT to give them proper odds postflop.

Your equity is small and people are staying whatever. So I figure the raise only has value against thinking players who count there odds.