$16 AK vs. WTF?

[crunchh]

ok i cn t comment the poker side but suposing you have a c.15% ROI aprox 2$ an hour per tourney

if you call and win say 30% of time let say your avg ROI improve to 3$
in the other case you lost 2$ your expectation of win but you start a sng right now and you will win 2$ in this same hour (ok didn t account for the minutes)

so 70% of the time you win or loose 0
30% of time you win 3$

doesn t it make it a +EV situation

I know there is a pb in this reasoning but can t see it (proof that there is a pb: you don t need AK to do it)