#21
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Re: Nl600: AQs
if you insist on doing this just shove the flop
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#22
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Re: Nl600: AQs
[ QUOTE ]
Wtf at this being terrible. Villain has a hand here like close to never and I dont want to let him suckout. Raising here is totally standard although we dont necessarily have to puah. [/ QUOTE ] Why do you think you're folding out pairs vs this 40/20? |
#23
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Re: Nl600: AQs
[ QUOTE ]
if you insist on doing this just shove the flop [/ QUOTE ] agreed. This isn't a flop where you wanna price him in. open shove seems fine imo. |
#24
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Re: Nl600: AQs
I just saw I misread the hand. I thought we had position and he donks into us. This changes things as we are behind a lot more whwn he bets like this. Checking to induce a bluff looks good. Now that he bet so small a call is probably in order although we`ll get into tough spots a lot so yea - i still like a raise.
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#25
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Re: Nl600: AQs
MH,
What about sets and 44/66 in villan's range? That would swing it so he has to fold some of the time for +0EV. Im saying this is close to breakeven play, but good for meta game! |
#26
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Re: Nl600: AQs
[ QUOTE ]
Thought this was a difficult spot, so I decided to run the numbers on this one and got some interesting results. Pot Size after villain bets: 333 + 78 = 411 Left to Shove: 433.8 - 105 = 328.8 (effective stacks of 433.8) Final Pot Size if Villain Calls: 333 + 328.8*2 = 990.6 Equity when called*: *The range will vary a lot on the donk, but in general we will always have around 35% equity with the overcards, bdfd, and gutshot. Board: 2c 5d 3h Dead: Hand 0: 35.842% { AdQd } Hand 1: 64.158% { AcAs, AdAs, KcKs, KdKs, JJ-77, 55, 65s } Let X = probability villain folds. EV of Shove is neutral when: 0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.35 - 328.8) X = -5%. So villain never has to fold for this to be +EV! A couple more numbers: X = 0%, EV = 17.91 X = 10%, EV = 57.22 X = 20%, EV = 96.53 So, not a terrible play at all. Nice hand hero! [/ QUOTE ] This is some wishful thinking. There are some hands that you left out that may call. IMO, this guy is never folding here with his stack. Let's see the numbers <font color="blue">Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com 83,160 evaluations, 84 hole card combos Board: 2c 5d 3h Wins Ties Equity 24.17% 2.83% 27.01% ( AdQd ) 70.16% 2.83% 72.99% ( AA-22,A4,A5 ) </font> 0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.25 - 328.8) <font color="red">X = 16%</font>. If I remove A4 and A5, <font color="blue">Wins Ties Equity 29.18% 1.46% 30.64% ( AdQd ) 67.91% 1.46% 69.36% ( AA-22 ) </font> 0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.3 - 328.8) <font color="red">X = 7%</font>. So, if the guy is never folding (which is mostly true considering he is committed), this is clearly -EV. If you really wanted to do this, like some one said, better push the flop simply. |
#27
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Re: Nl600: AQs
i can never see folding here with this stack sizes and i dont see why he can never fold after leading that weak. he wont do it often though. other option would be to call after his bet was so small, i dont see how this can be good though.
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