AKs - a confusing spot on flop

[shortline99]

k, i guess i remembered a little differently. not A hi. pair of aces.

Seat 1: ure a towel ($99)
Seat 2: Hero ($211.45), is sitting out
Seat 3: VILLAIN ($365.80)
Seat 4: Dead Serious 74 ($102.40)
Seat 5: El_beanos ($99.50)
Seat 6: mukzr ($104.25)
ure a towel posts the small blind of $0.50
VILLAIN posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dead Serious 74 calls $1
El_beanos folds
mukzr raises to $4.50
ure a towel folds
VILLAIN calls $3.50
Dead Serious 74 calls $3.50
*** FLOP *** [Ad Qh Qd]
VILLAIN checks
Dead Serious 74 checks
mukzr bets $10
VILLAIN calls $10
Dead Serious 74 folds
*** TURN *** [Ad Qh Qd] [5c]
VILLAIN checks
mukzr checks
*** RIVER *** [Ad Qh Qd 5c] [3h]
VILLAIN checks
mukzr checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mukzr shows [Ac 8c] two pair, Aces and Queens
VILLAIN shows [Qs Ts] three of a kind, Queens
VILLAIN wins the pot ($32.30) with three of a kind, Queens

[Mike MacIntosh]

We need 12.5 to 1 odds to draw to our nut straight on the turn. We are recieiving 4.7 to 1 immediate odds on the flop. Which means we must extract $78 more from the villain on the turn when we hit to make this 0EV.

Lets assume villain has a strong hand that is willing to stack off every time we hit our straight. This is giving us 16.7 to 1 implied odds. Obviously making a call correct.

Calling this flop is largely based on the answer to the following:

1. How often does villain have a hand he is willing to stack off with when a Q hits on the turn?

2. How often are our A/K outs good enough to win the pot?

3. How much money will we lose when we hit TPTK on the turn, and villain has a better hand?

4. How much money will we win when we hit TPTK on the turn and villain has a worse hand?

We can make a few observations from these questions.

Calling is immediantly profitable if villain has a marginal hand, making our A/K outs clean to go along with out 4 straight outs.

Calling this flop bet is proftiable if villain has big hand in this spot often, which is willing to stack off on a Q turn.

Calling this flop bet can become non-profitable if villain has a big hand often, and we are willing to stack off/invest a significant amount of money on an A/K turn.

Conclusion - Calling the flop bet is profitable in this spot. Mainly becuase villain will have a big hand here often, that is going to be willing to stack off no a Q turn, and we are not going to stack off on a A/K turn.