crockpot's baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)

[Thremp]

Not really.

You either have better things to do with your money or you don't. It seems you haven't really done any sort of in depth thought on this, which is good for people who bet sports to win money.

[THAY3R]

Why is that good for people who bet sports to win money?

All i'm saying is that you have to be much more confident in these types of bets compared to your normal game day bet, and I think the difference in confidence needs to be significant considering the time value of money of nearly 7 months.

Not to mention the small chance of Bodog(or sites like them) changing their stance on U.S. gaming over this time period.

These kinds of bets are perfect for credit based books, where you just pay when you lose, but that doesn't exist legally or online.(At least I don't think)

[Thremp]

If you had already worked the numbers out, what are you asking?

[TheRover]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is that good for people who bet sports to win money?

All i'm saying is that you have to be much more confident in these types of bets compared to your normal game day bet, and I think the difference in confidence needs to be significant considering the time value of money of nearly 7 months.

Not to mention the small chance of Bodog(or sites like them) changing their stance on U.S. gaming over this time period.

These kinds of bets are perfect for credit based books, where you just pay when you lose, but that doesn't exist legally or online.(At least I don't think)

[/ QUOTE ]

they exist. don't ask me how to use them (b/c I don't know).

[dankhank]

[ QUOTE ]
I did this about 2 days ago, found like 50 really good looking bets on Bodog, but then thought :

I need to be so right about these for this to be good for me to make money off of this. Most of the bets are at -115, so even if I make 10k of bets, the absolute best return I could make is ~8k, and that's basically impossible when you factor in the many likely no actions. The baseball season is over 6 months, that's a long time, and there are probably better things to be doing with your money.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

most of these guys barely even play poker. they have nothing better to do with their money on bodog than let it sit in mlb futures for the entire spring, summer, and fall.

(only responding because i thought about whether i should put money into what i'm sure are +ev bets here, and at least for this year, don't think it's worth the hassle)

[TheGrasshopper]

crockpot- I bet the over on Ryan Howard having more than 134 hits(-120). He had 182 last year.

I understand that teams are going to be more careful pitching to him. However Utley and Victorino should be on base a lot.

I feel extremely confident about this bet, am I missing something?

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel extremely confident about this bet, am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am no crockpot. But injury concerns and various other stipulations can reduce EV. However, some of the stipulations that Bodog makes creates bets that are almost locks, requiring like a 3-4SD performance in one direction to whiff for you.

[THAY3R]

Ryan Howard's Under of .305 BA is a much better bet to me than his hits. No way he can keep up that BABIP this year.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
crockpot- I bet the over on Ryan Howard having more than 134 hits(-120). He had 182 last year.

I understand that teams are going to be more careful pitching to him. However Utley and Victorino should be on base a lot.

I feel extremely confident about this bet, am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

like it a lot with the 140 game minimum. he probably won't bat .313 again, but everything in his minor league numbers indicates .290 is well within reach. he'll get walked more this year but also won't bat fifth or sixth, which is worth maybe an extra 15-20 PA. plus you have built in injury insurance.

line is a lot worse now.

[THAY3R]

To expand on my earlier point -

Piazza O/U (min 140 games) RBI 59.5(-140)

Despite the juice this is a layup bet, I mean it's nearly impossible for Piazza to play 140 games and not get 60 RBI, right?

Well, that's not even the most important thing to consider in this bet. The most important thing to consider is how likely Piazza won't play 140 games, and then the potential money you lose by having it locked up for 6+ months.


I'm sure my original post sounded rather noobish(and maybe this one as well), but I guess I was just trying to explain to the masses who may just think "ooh wow, this is a good bet" that there is more to making a future bet than just the actual bet and it's +EVness in a vacuum.