variance

[tannenj]

in theory, one can't ever be 100% sure he's a winning player. even if one has played five million winning hands, there will always be that miniscule percentage chance.

[younghov17]

matrix i wasnt rly looking for an opinion on whther im a winning player, i just used myself as an example to set up a discussion about variance

[kslghost]

Variance is easily analyzed using certain tests. Note that if your variance is 50PTBB/100 hands and your true win rate is around 10PTBB/100, you could lose 100PTBB/100 hands over the course of a 1000 hands and that would not be too unusual (maybe 1/10000?...that's 20 buyins!). But every 1000 hands more, the chances drop astronomically, and if you look up some stuff on Z-test and T-test (I forget which is which), you can check your own numbers.