#21
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Re: 10/20 at Bellagio
[ QUOTE ]
if we're putting bluffs/semi-bluffs into his range), then betting out on the turn is asking to get raised again. [/ QUOTE ] and this is a bad thing? and will he call w/ KQ here if you donk into him, then puting you in on a safe river? |
#22
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Re: 10/20 at Bellagio
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] IF we can assign semibluffs/draws/strong kings to his range, I like a check, but if we can't, betting would probably be better, with these stack sizes. [/ QUOTE ] I think AK, JT and any 2 hearts could certainly be part of his range. So you are saying, if these hands are NOT in his range, then betting is better? Which means we are betting into a better hand. So why are we doing that? To gain information? I would think the opposite, if it is likely for him to have AK/JT/hh, betting a blank on the turn would be better than checking. [/ QUOTE ] i say check, intending on c/ring (assuming he bets often, instead of checks behind) |
#23
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Re: 10/20 at Bellagio
[ QUOTE ]
you think checking turn is better than betting even though it gives him the option of a free river and it may force you to commit your entire stack? still seems to me that both of those things are avoided by donking the turn. [/ QUOTE ] thats exactly my thoughts. not only that but he may slow down w/ KQ giving you a chance to improve and bet out again, or c/f the river if you feel hes strong and your hand is NG |
#24
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Re: 10/20 at Bellagio
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] if we're putting bluffs/semi-bluffs into his range), then betting out on the turn is asking to get raised again. [/ QUOTE ] and this is a bad thing? and will he call w/ KQ here if you donk into him, then puting you in on a safe river? [/ QUOTE ] What I'm trying to say (back when I thought we were deeper), is that you want to be as cautious as possible against an unknown with one pair in spots like this. |
#25
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Re: 10/20 at Bellagio
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I like donking the turn because on a KQ board he HAS to be afraid of a monster against a preflop raiser. So I would probably bet like 800-900 on the turn and fold to a push. I agree, though, that I would like this more with deeper stacks. But I think any other line is just putting us in a worse spot. The advantages of my line are that it doesn't give him odds to draw out and it is almost impossible for him to bluff us out on the turn since he HAS to expect we're calling a push and he has to fear KKK or QQQ. Obvious disadvantages are committing majority of stack to pot, but I don't see a line which does NOT entail that other than folding flop which I think is pretty weak... [/ QUOTE ] What is your plan if he just calls your turn bet, and a non heart comes on the river? [/ QUOTE ] Probably c/f or c/c as seems appropriate. Pushing for value seems very thin... |
#26
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Re: 10/20 at Bellagio
do you think betting out on the turn is the best option if you want to (and i do) create a large pot?
or do you feel the need to somewhat put yourself at risk to a safe river and somehow get a cheap showdown? or is this pretty much a fold to a threatening river card of any kind considering the possibility we're beat already. i think checking through the turn is a huge mistake and you're losing value against a lot of worse hands. |
#27
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Re: 10/20 at Bellagio
yeah i agree, which is why i think on the turn is whether you should decide to create a big pot, or to see a cheap showdown.
kind of a close call here, no? |
#28
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Re: 10/20 at Bellagio
if i want to create a large pot, which i think is a mistake here (or 3-betting the flop is your best bet), i would make my turn move based on whether or not i think he will bet if i check (if he will check behind more often than he bets, i would bet out).
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#29
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Re: 10/20 at Bellagio
definitely close, this hand is really awkward w stack sizes, so physical reads would be huge
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#30
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Re: 10/20 at Bellagio
[ QUOTE ]
if i want to create a large pot, which i think is a mistake here (or 3-betting the flop is your best bet), i would make my turn move based on whether or not i think he will bet if i check (if he will check behind more often than he bets, i would bet out). [/ QUOTE ] I agree with jk on this point. If you plan to bet the turn and create a big pot, why not just reraise the flop? |
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