BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold

[MATT111]

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It is impossible for it to be a massive mistake.

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You can play for set value alone.

[rory]

You are getting 3.5:1 to call. You are 8:1 to flop a set. That means every time you flop a set you have to win 2.25 BB to break even

[rory]

Since you can't play for set value alone, you have to play for set value plus bluff plus winning unimproved. Let's say on average I win 1.5 extra BB when I flop a set which seems reasonable to me. That means I am missing 0.75 BB somewhere along the way when I am playing simply for set value. I have to think that over those 8 times I call with my pocket pair and I don't make a set that I can win 0.75 BB postflop. I think this is a fairly tall order with a small pocket pair out of position. Generally, your hands will go like this:

check-raise the flop, bet the turn they fold. win 1 BB
check-raise the flop, bet the turn they raise you fold,
you lose -2 BB.
check-call all three streets you win +2.5 BB
check-call all three streets you lose -2.5 BB
c/r flop bet the turn and river they call wi th ace high you win 3 BB
bet-all three streets they hit against you and call the whole way you lose 3 BB

and you never fold the best hand. i think if you think about these scenarios, it is bad to call with a pocket pair if the person is at all aggressive.

now switch it around so you are in position. the scenarios are a lot better for you, mainly because you can play the turn better. in position, you get check-raised on the flop you can throw it away. you have initiative so you can get them to fold the better hand with a flop bet sometimes (a larger pocket pair on a smaller board).

i am getting bored of writing this. maybe you all disagree but this sort of thinking makes sense to me. i used to fold suited connectors in this spot too, but lately i have gone back to calling with them again. i am not sure which is better, or that it matters at all really. i think calling with a small pocket pair is a clear mistake here, though. but the suited connectors is a little more up for grabs because you can withstand a little more action and you have way more outs if you are behind. the little pocket pair if you are behind, you are pretty much screwed. a suited connector will often have enough two pair plus backdoor draws to make it play better.

[MATT111]

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 3.5:1 to call. You are 8:1 to flop a set. That means every time you flop a set you have to win 2.25 BB to break even

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we make more.