Two examples of drastically changing chip values

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate both hands, at least look at the flop.

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I think hand 2 is very debately as well. But I think the fact that I am so clueless as to his range, I am more likely to make a mistake on the flop unless I flop a pair. If he plays on, I am playing for his stack. Given the amount of chips I have losing 200K hurts a lot more than winning 200K helps. We don't need to accumulate as aggressively anymore. Also important to note that this is a 10$ party tournament, of 40 players 25+ are probably really bad.

I would like to here why you think hand 1 is bad. Saying you dont like it doesnt really help anyone.

[Quanah Parker]

OK, that's what I was thinking.

Great post.

[playtowin]

Nice post... on hand #1, I def. like shoving in my last chips, hoping for an isolation with the UTG and taking my chances. I figure I have decent chances I'll be in a 60-40 (maybe UTG has AK or AQ, even possible coinflip), which is plenty good enough for me, in order to put myself ahead of the blinds for a little while longer...besides, a stack of 40k lets me pick a spot to get my chips in, and a player will have to think twice about calling if its over half their stack (avg. is 60k).

As for hand #2, with 460k (twice the average) I'm looking to play small pot poker, so folding makes sense... however, calling and taking a flop makes a little more sense to me... even if i have to fold postflop following a C-bet, I want the SB to know that I'm willing to play, and won't fold to a min-raise. thoughts anyone else?

[XraySpeX]

I am new to the whole MTTs scene but I just wanted to give my thoughts for the hell of it.

Like someone else said earlier in this post if you fold this hand and push one of your next two hands you will probably get called by a worse hand than UTG+1's tight range. If you push here UTG+1 is going to call you almost every time (if no one reraises) and his range is very tight when in EP. If you fold and push the next hand or the hand after you said that 20-25% of the time everyone will fold and you will take the blinds. That means that 75-80% of the time you are getting called and probably be a worse hand than UTG+1's range.

If this is a push I think that it is very boarderline between pushing this hand and pushing one of the next two hands.

You said "Since we are so short, even if we were to win the blinds next hand, we are still in horrible shape when we take the blinds." but it seems if we do happen to win the blinds next hand we can get through the blinds.... sure we will be back where we started but at least we will be in late position with the same stack and have a choice when it comes to who has raised in front of us.

The second hand I don't see how calling here could be wrong. You have a decent hand and have position on the raiser. I would at least call and hit the flop. The argument that he could be on any range doesn't seem strong enough to justify not at least calling here preflop.

I realize that I am a newbie to this forum and that you have alot more experience than me. Just wanted to get my thoughts out.

XraySpeX

[A_PLUS]

For those in the 'we will be called by a worse hand than UG+1's range" camp.

You are forgetting to consider:
-forget hand strength and look at equity vs ranges, adding a few more hands to his range doesn't help us that much. (<5%)
-the strength of our hand
-the size of the pot
-the fact that it might not be heads up (and players at this level love the old, check it down to eliminate a player routine).

By the size of the pot, I mean that the Blinds are the most likely to call, and that chops some of the showdown pot. Normally that doesnt matter much, but here, we are so short that it does. The same thing goes for when we successfully steal the blinds and end up on the button with 3xBB again.

Some minor math.
Pushing any 2 next hand, has about +.3BB CEV
I think, this call is about -.5xBB.

But, I dont think that having 3xBB UG+1, gets to 9xBB 31% of the time. (which was the equity I used). Not to mention that we get the 9xBB immediately in this case, which adds value to the next 4 hands in a way that 3xBB doesn't (i.e. BB walks, open pushing from SB, picking up a real hand and getting to 20xBB, etc).

[Art Vandelay]

AFter reading through this and thinking some more, I think I'm getting it, especially hand 1. To put it another way, when we are this short you pretty much accept the fact that you are going to be going all-in over the next few hands as a dog (blinds coming up, etc). Why not get all in where if we double up we go from a stack of ~3BB to a stack of ~9BB instead of open-pushing hoping that maybe the blinds fold and we are at 4.5 BB about to go right through the BB? And even better, what if someone reraises from LP and UTG+1 folds and now we might have a shot (albeit as a dog) to get to ~12 BB? This is what makes making a -cEV play +$EV. By pushing here, we are increasing the likelihood that IF we win the pot, we have a stack that now has a little bite to it instead of stealing blinds and being right back where we were in 3 more hands. We might be more likely to bust (which we were likely to anyway) but if we can survive, we are much more likely to have a stack that can potentially go deeper in the tourney.

That's what I'm thinking, but it's the end of my work day and I'm tired and confused. I also suck at writing so this is probably difficult to read.

[Masquerade]

Terrible. Both really bad. J9 is going to be an underdog - parhaps a huge one - and you have zero folding equity. Pushing any two the next time it's folded to you is better than this.

The second one is crazy. You have a hand that must be better than his range, plus position, and the chance to take his entire stack. Call and see a flop.

[dd323]

I don't normally post in MTT, but I think on top of what everyone else is saying, UTG is offering you protection because what you really want is 2 live cards, and a heads up pot.

[mornelth]

Hand 1 - "The moer I look at it, the more I like it..." King Crimson

Hand 2 - I hate this fold. 3:1, in position, with a hand that can flop big flushes, straights not counting 2 pair and trips and such. I can let top pair go on the flop if opponent sets the price too high - that's my adjustment for risk/reward ratio here, but folding this is ridiculous. Your implied pot odds are too good to fold.