TomG's Robot Professional MLB Betting

[Homer]

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You will get crushed.

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QFT

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kill yourself

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leveled obv

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n = 0

[fun160]

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You will get crushed.

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QFT

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kill yourself

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leveled obv

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n = 0

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What does any of this crap have to do with betting (and beating) MLB?

[basementproject]

Hijacking = ++EV

[fun160]

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i've given the AL a .6 run advantage on the games i've handicapped so far...

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Michael Murray has it a lot lower than six tenths of a run:

"A generic rule of thumb says that the American League is about .35 or .40 runs better than the National League on the whole. A quick translation shows that a handicapper should add about 20 cents to his line to account for the domination of the AL over the NL.

"I'm not comfortable doing this, however. A look at last year's interleague records explain the reason. There were five teams in the American League last season that rolled over the National League: Boston (16-2), Minnesota (16-2), Detroit (15-3), Chicago (14-4), and Seattle (14-4).

"Three of the five teams were from the AL Central, who just happened to play most of its interleague games against the awful NL Central. Minnesota went 13-2 against the NL Central. Detroit entire 15-3 record was against teams from the NL Central. The same was true for the White Sox's 14-4 record.

"Take away the 42-9 record racked up by those three teams and the American League's interleague record is a less impressive 112-89. Still good for 55%, but not nearly enough to go overboard on AL teams when making the line. The American League is better, but they aren't this good."

[newb411breaker19]

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i've given the AL a .6 run advantage on the games i've handicapped so far...

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Michael Murray has it a lot lower than six tenths of a run:

"A generic rule of thumb says that the American League is about .35 or .40 runs better than the National League on the whole. A quick translation shows that a handicapper should add about 20 cents to his line to account for the domination of the AL over the NL.

"I'm not comfortable doing this, however. A look at last year's interleague records explain the reason. There were five teams in the American League last season that rolled over the National League: Boston (16-2), Minnesota (16-2), Detroit (15-3), Chicago (14-4), and Seattle (14-4).

"Three of the five teams were from the AL Central, who just happened to play most of its interleague games against the awful NL Central. Minnesota went 13-2 against the NL Central. Detroit entire 15-3 record was against teams from the NL Central. The same was true for the White Sox's 14-4 record.

"Take away the 42-9 record racked up by those three teams and the American League's interleague record is a less impressive 112-89. Still good for 55%, but not nearly enough to go overboard on AL teams when making the line. The American League is better, but they aren't this good."

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thanks a lot for pointing this out fun160.. I got the .6 runs from a website, I hadn't done my own study using past scores but I'm not sure what the data range was and I know this wasn't coming from gamblers (such as Murray) so I was a little wary of it and hence have only made aroun 5 or 6 bets during this interleague period. I'm really just waiting to get back to AL and NL. thanks a lot for posting that. Anyone know where TOMG is at?

[TomG]

I haven't posted much the last few days because I'm not happy with using this model for interleague games. As you pointed out, we run into the problem with either overvaluing NL pitching or undervaluing AL pitching when interleague teams play each other.

For a National League team's expected runs scored I've been using...

(NL Team's Average Runs Scored Against NL Avg Pitching Staff * AL Team's Average Runs Allowed Against AL Avg Hitters) / National League Average Runs Scored

For an American League team's expected runs scored we'd get...

(AL Team's Average Runs Scored Against AL Avg Pitching Staff * NL Team's Average Runs Allowed Against NL Avg Hitters) / American League Average Runs Scored

I see the difference between the two league's average runs scored more of function of better hitting than disparities in pitching. Thus when projecting the expected runs scored for the AL team, if we use the superior AL Average Runs Scored as the denominator we end up overvaluing the NL team's pitching (NL pitchers do not deserve sole credit for there being less runs).

Ideas?

[basementproject]

EQ stats

[fun160]

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When evaluating my games, I personally use DIPS to evaluate pitchers, and Defensive Efficiency ratings to factor in the overall quality of a team's defense.

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There's an article in today's New York Times that talks about a tool that expands on the work of Voros McCracken. Enjoy.

[ncboiler]

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When evaluating my games, I personally use DIPS to evaluate pitchers, and Defensive Efficiency ratings to factor in the overall quality of a team's defense.

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There's an article in today's New York Times that talks about a tool that expands on the work of Voros McCracken. Enjoy.

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There is a link to another essay earlier in the thread detailing a pitchers luck vs skill on balls put in play. With that in mind I see no common sense rational behind a theory that pitchers can only control HRs/Walks/HB etc. and it's left to luck and fielding as to whether a ball put in play is going to be a hit. Greg Maddox did not strike out a lot of players in his prime but he also did not give batters very many good pitches to hit. Pitchers that have no control within the strike zone are not only more likely, in my opinion, to give up home runs but are also more likely to give up hard hit balls. These hard hit balls are less likely to be fielded. Again; I have not data to back this up but it seems like common sense. For this reason I don't like any statistic that is used to predict a pitchers runs given up that does not include hits.

[kyleb]

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Greg Maddox did not strike out a lot of players in his prime

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LOL

you might be thinking of Greg Maddux of right now. please look at his historical stats if you still think this.