#11
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Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Cold Call PFR was 1.2% Therefore wide range. [/ QUOTE ] wow, he is 3betting really light. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly why I thought on the turn I had possibly had lots of FE versus a weak hand. [/ QUOTE ] Can I re-iterate the above. [/ QUOTE ] Hey Primate...take about 2 seconds and THINK about what we're saying. You DON'T want worse hands to fold. You DO want better hands to fold. Which better hands fold the turn? What % do they make up of Villain's range? |
#12
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Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
if you think he doesn't have much, 4bet pf
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#13
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Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
call turn i think we have showdown value
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#14
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Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
here are pokerstove results where I input a range of hands that he calls us with.
Board: As 7h 9c 8h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 38.144% 37.88% 00.27% 1000 7.00 { Ah6h } Hand 1: 61.856% 61.59% 00.27% 1626 7.00 { AA, 99-77, A7s+, KhQh, KhJh, JTs, 97s+, 87s, ATo+ } not sure what you guys think of my range, but I don't think it's too bad considered we're labeling him as a light 3-bettor. so, 38% of the time we're winning $350 ($113 in pot + $237 villain puts in on turn). and 62% of the time we're losing $237 (the money we're shoving on the turn). 237(.62) = $146 350(.38) = $133 so our EV when we shove and he calls is -$13. so we need to make up $13 in equity on our shove. in order to make $16 based on fold equity, villain needs to fold 60% of the time. so, basically if villain folds 60% of the time, our total EV is +$3. |
#15
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Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
call > shove. However, you all have seemed to have missed something. Getting it in with a lower draw is awesome.
[ QUOTE ] if you think he doesn't have much, 4bet pf [/ QUOTE ] calling > 4b |
#16
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Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
4bet preflop
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#17
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Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
I like this a lot.
If we give villain a hand like AK then your 60/40 to lose the hand but with the money already in the pot and your fold equity i'm sure this is +ev. I like a shove rather than calling hoping to hit because it folds out hands like A10 AJ AQ. |
#18
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Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
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#19
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Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
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#20
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Re: 200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] scroll down to Sept 11th 2006 and read [/ QUOTE ] lol, please dont shove pf [/ QUOTE ] y not? vs.70% defends how much do u think u get a fold there? vs.any decent calling range AA KK QQ JJ even AK even AQ whats that like 3-4% of hands so out of the 30% that he defends with 26% of those are folds... 26/30 = 86% folding with allot of money in the pot already..not to mention times ur behind and come out ahead by the river |
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