Week 9 Early NCAA Lines

[iggymcfly]

Still though, I bet this line sharpens up a bunch by gametime. Everyone in the media seemed to think Cal was better than Oregon too, but that line got up to 6 by kickoff. (Oregon was the right side there too, turnovers were the only thing that kept them from winning and covering.) If this line's lower than 4.5 on Friday, I'll be amazed.

[Post-Oak]

la monroe @ FL ATLANTIC -6 (-105) 1.575u to win 1.5u
cal @ AZ STATE -3 (+102) 1.5u/1.53u
MICH ST -3 (+102) @ iowa 1.2u/1.224u
COLORADO +13.5 (-105) @ tx tech 1.05u/1.0u
mississippi @ AUBURN -18 (-101) 1.01u/1.0u
UCLA -6 (+100) @ wash st 1.0u/1.0u

YTD: 14-9 +3.959u

I am looking at 3 more games, but I want to wait and see what happens with those lines.

[iggymcfly]

I couldn't get much money online this week and I'm just doing some weird modified round-robins with what I deposited to try to get a decent amount of action so I'm not posting any official picks this week. The teams I like this week though, in order are Oregon, Iowa, Rutgers, and Purdue.

I wanted to mention Iowa in particular as I haven't seen them brought up on this forum and they're a 3 point dog when I think they should actually be favored. Michigan State's in a textbook sandwich game, coming off a disappointing loss to #1 Ohio State last week, and with the rivalry battle with Michigan coming up next Saturday. No way are they motivated for a road game with 1-3 Iowa.

Iowa's already beaten a better team (Illinois) in a similar situation however and the matchups favor them too. Iowa's strength is rush defense and their two best games have come against pure running teams in Illinois and Wisconsin. They'll get a similar matchup against Michigan State who has run the ball 353 times this year compared to only 225 passing attempts. Also, MSU's already shown a tendency to let down this year, falling to Northwestern immediately after their close loss to Wisconsin. I'd expect the Hawkeyes to win here 20-17.

[n2p]

good analysis

[rsigley]

wvu -6, rutgers can't contain qb's who run too much. i expect wvu will roll out to the sides a lot and have a lot of open space in front of them

pouring rain here in nj too, really bad. might take the under not sure yet

[thelyingthief]

the myth: offense has the edge on off surfaces.

the fact: defense has the edge on off surfaces.

this particularly applies to offenses composed of cut and juke type runners: no purchase for them little toesees...

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
Iowa's already beaten a better team (Illinois) in a similar situation however and the matchups favor them too. Iowa's strength is rush defense and their two best games have come against pure running teams in Illinois and Wisconsin. They'll get a similar matchup against Michigan State who has run the ball 353 times this year compared to only 225 passing attempts. Also, MSU's already shown a tendency to let down this year, falling to Northwestern immediately after their close loss to Wisconsin. I'd expect the Hawkeyes to win here 20-17.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm so vain. A field goal would have locked up the cover there, but I was half-cheering for him to miss it, so I could get the exact score right. Let's hope that doesn't come back to bite me in the last 6:00.

[n2p]

I already said this but I really liked your thoughts on the game and trailed you on Iowa.