SB defense with KQs

[Bulletproof Monk]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really guys think that villain will call this river with A hight?

[/ QUOTE ]

there is some % of the time he calls with A hi and there is some % of the time he folds A hi

[JJack]

[ QUOTE ]
*Grunch*

I would play all hand c/c.

River b/f I think is mistake cus if we assume villain's rage is:
TT+,AQs+,AQo+

then when we bet he will fold all we would win (AQos)
we only beat QQ with is 3 combination (we hold one Q) and JJ (6 combination)

If we are behind (most probably) we are behind of AKos (12+4), KK (3), AA(6), TT(3)

So we are ahead and we will probably call if we bet = 9
we are behind and we just lose 1 BB and risk being bluff = 28

So at river we are about 3:1 underdog

[/ QUOTE ]

If we are behind (most probably) we are behind of AKos (6+2), KK (1), AA(6), TT(3)

ok so when i improve my math will be:

(

So we are ahead and we will probably call if we bet = 9
we are behind and we just lose 1 BB and risk being bluff = 18

So at river we are about 2:1 underdog (If he dont call with air like A high)

[beyazkus]

* g *

ok, lets do some math... after he capped preflop we can put him on a narrow range of hands considering his pfr of 7.5%: QQ+ and AKs, AKo seem standard. but considering that he raised from the hijack and could conceive of your 3-bet as a defensive raise then it would be fair to assume that he would cap with JJ, AQs, AQo, and possibly AJs. so taking into consideration his whole range:
JJ - 6 ways
QQ - 3 ways (you have a Q)
KK - 2 ways (you have a K and one on board)
AA - 6 ways
AKs + AKo - 8 ways (you have a K and one on board)
AQs + AQo - 12 ways (you have a Q)
AJs - 4 ways

so on the flop there are 25 ways that you are ahead while 16 ways that you can be behind presumming our assumptions are correct. in this case a raise is mandatory as you are a favorite to be ahead, and as his response to your raise will help you determine where you are at. notice that being a favorite to be ahead doesn't make you a favorite to win the hand, as your op has considerably more outs if you are ahead, as opposed to your slim number of outs if you are behind. so the key aspect remains to raise to see where you are at.

if he 3-bets you on the flop then check / call turn, check / call river... if an ace or another spade hits on the river give a crying call...

if he doesn't 3-bet the flop, then by all means bet the turn too, if you get raised check / call river same as above.

if he doesn't 3-bet the flop, and calls your bet on the turn, then bet the river as long as a spade or ace doesn't hit. if they do hit (as in our example), then it is probably better to check and call, as you will get raised with a better hand if you bet and will have to call, and by checking you gain the possibility of inducing a bluff, or a bet with a worse hand.

[JJack]

*g*

ye
You make good math (I miss count something ;P)
But KK has 1 combo not 2.

With math I agree. But rest I dont.
You can be ahead but also behaind but if villain has AQ or AJ u want he c-bet also turn - cus he has then only A outs clean.
So when u ahead u wanna he put money at pot and when u behing he can fold those hand and only raise with better so u will pay more if u are behind and u will kick out 3 outer when ahead.

[beyazkus]

[ QUOTE ]
But KK has 1 combo not 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

so true [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

with regard to the WA/WB line which seems to be supported by the more frequent posters (bennyhana, Fadook, Bulletproof Monk) i get the feeling that reading sshe for a third time might me due for me to remind myself of these scenarios...

[Smurph64]

I like check/raise on the turn myself but this works.

[mackthefork]

You're behind

8 x AK
6 x AA
1 x AQs?
3 x TT?

18 combinations

and ahead of

3 x QQ
6 x JJ
3 x AQs?

12 combinations

So you got 40% equity on the end, a lot of people will raise AA on the end, some AK, AQ spades obviously, but you need a specific read to know if he will ever raise a hand you beat, I dunno I think I prefer a check call, but I suck.

Basically I think folding in a pot this size would be a mistake with TP against a solid player.

Regards Mack