#11
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Re: 24+2: aces gets action on hyper messy board.
meh i get it in...
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#12
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Re: 24+2: aces gets action on hyper messy board.
[ QUOTE ]
meh i get it in... [/ QUOTE ] |
#13
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Re: 24+2: aces gets action on hyper messy board.
[ QUOTE ]
check w intention of c-raising ai. if you give a free card not too bad bc if scare hits u can c-call or lead w 4 flush fold to reraise. or just c-fold and lose minimum. [/ QUOTE ] Checking is just bad. |
#14
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Re: 24+2: aces gets action on hyper messy board.
I think this hand needs a deeper analysis.
Preflop: It's hard to set a loose player on a range, but at least we can exclude some hands: AA-TT,AK,maybe AQ,unsuited trash like 82o - which still leaves us a lot of hands. Flop: With a reraise of this size you get a good information. He likes his hand, he is not worried giving you 1:2,2 pot odds. So from this action we can assume he holds a hand he think is best, or a hand that has a high probability to improve to the best hand. So let's check the most likely holdings: 1.) TPTK - AJ - and with the raise As is most likely - you are a 56% favorite 2.) top pair with Ks or Qs as kicker - you are 49% underdog 3.) JT - 28% underdog 4.) set of 2s - 12% underdog 5.) any flush draw is highly likely to also be a straight draw like KQ,K9,Q9,98,87... with one spade - you are about from this complete range it's a coinflip 6.) made flush - nearly drawing dead (3%) 7.) top pair with top or good kicker without a spade - 88% favorite (while I think this is very unlikely) So from all these possibilities your best chance is he plays TPTK with one spade - where you get 56%. I think if we calculate his complete range you are at best 50%, while I think you are a slight underdog - maybe something like 45% or 1:1,22. Pot odds are 2468:3168 ~ 1:1,28 I think this is a push/fold decision - I think it's marginally +cEV, and it might gain more value if you think your push has some FE (which I don't think - maybe only against AJ (no spade) - which is unlikely). If you like to gamble here push, but I can see a fold here too. |
#15
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Re: 24+2: aces gets action on hyper messy board.
I bet more on the flop too, like 300 or so.
I'm folding to the raise. It's a gross spot, your opponent is never folding and his range here at worst is pair + flush draw. |
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