Why 3bet?

[corsakh]

Ye but he may have PFR of 12 and steal attempt of 30, thats why I asked. If his steal attempt is 12, the only thing you can really do is fold.

[dirtylobster]

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Ye but he may have PFR of 12 and steal attempt of 30, thats why I asked. If his steal attempt is 12, the only thing you can really do is fold.

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I second this.

[thac]

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Ye but he may have PFR of 12 and steal attempt of 30, thats why I asked. If his steal attempt is 12, the only thing you can really do is fold.

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Yeah, I agree.. I'll 3-bet a 20/17 with AJo but when the guy is probably 14/12, he's generally gonna have a better hand than a 20/17.

[thing85]

Even with a PFR of 12%, most 50NL players are weak and will fold most "decent" hands to a 3bet PF. His 3bet calling range is very small.

Let's say you have AJo on the button and you make a standard 2xBB open PFR. SB folds and TAG Villain (we'll say 18/16) 3bets you in the BB for 7xBBs. What do you usually do?

[thac]

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Even with a PFR of 12%, most 50NL players are weak and will fold most "decent" hands to a 3bet PF. His 3bet calling range is very small.

Let's say you have AJo on the button and you make a standard 2xBB open PFR. SB folds and TAG Villain (we'll say 18/16) 3bets you in the BB for 7xBBs. What do you usually do?

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Depends on the villain, his 3-betting tendencies, how well he plays postflop in 3-bet pots.. there's too many factors to say 'omg fold', or 'lol call'.

[TTStrangler]

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Let's say you have AJo on the button and you make a standard 2xBB open PFR. SB folds and TAG Villain (we'll say 18/16) 3bets you in the BB for 7xBBs. What do you usually do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you talking about a min raise? I never min raise, and I would expect a more aggressive villain in the blinds to 3bet with anything decent if I did min raise/steal from the button. And FWIW, if Villain is loose in your situation I would call with position.

[Waingro]

I agree with Thac here. Against some villains I 3bet AJo or even worse and are willing to put my stack in when I hit. Sometimes when I 3bet with stuff like AJ I am like "No ace no ace" so in those spots I would probably been much better off not 3betting. I like to 3bet with stuff that I don´t mind getting it in vs this player on good flops or stuff like 84o that probably won´t get me into much trouble post-flop.

[Pokey]

Sorry to bring the conversation back to the original topic, but I had a few thoughts.

There are two different ways that your opponent can respond to three-bets in general:

1. He can fold relatively often.
2. He can fold relatively infrequently.

Either of these can be very profitable to you.

If villain folds relatively often then your three-bet will be IMMEDIATELY profitable. Villain raises to $2, you repop to $7. At this point you're risking a little less than $7 (depending on which blind you're in) to win $2.35 (blind money plus raise). Assume you lose 100% of the time when villain calls (absolute worst-case scenario). Even if that's true, your EV is neutral on the bet if villain folds:

EV = F*(+2.35) + (1-F)*(-7) = 0
2.35F + 7F = 7
9.35F = 7
F = 74.9%

If villain folds three-fourths of his steals (or more) to a three-bet, you make an IMMEDIATE profit on your bet. For a relatively bluffy opponent facing a relatively tight blind, that's probably not an unlikely number. Add in the times that you actually win postflop and you don't need villain to fold NEARLY as often. For example, say you've got 22 in the big blind and the button raises to $2. You three-bet to $7. Here, you win $2.35 when villain folds, you lose $6.75 when you're called and don't improve, but you win AT LEAST $7.35 when you are called and hit your deuce. Given that you'll hit about one time in 8.5 (11.8% of the time), that changes the EV to:

EV = F*(2.35) + (1-F)*[(0.882)*(-6.75) + (0.118)*(7.35)] = 0
2.35F + 5.0862F = 5.0862
F = 68.4%

EVEN if we assume that we give up and lose EVERY flop when we miss our deuce, and even if we assume that we win NO extra money when we hit our deuce, if our opponent folds about 2/3rds of the time this is a +EV move for us preflop. Obviously, if we add in profitable stealing situations postflop our opponent needs to fold even less often for this to be +EV. Beyond small pairs, you could make a similar argument for suited connectors 54s-JTs, arguing on the assumption that immediate folds will make us most of our money and the occasional "big hit" postflop will reduce the cost when we do get called.

But what about if villain calls too frequently? Well, say villain calls 2/3rds of the time when we three-bet. Now we're going to be in a harder situation postflop, but we're also going to be in a more profitable situation postflop. If villain is stealing 24% of the time, then he's calling with 16% of his starting hand range, and that includes all sorts of monumental crap. One possibility is that a flop bet will immediately pick up the pot ridiculously often, at which point we're back to situation #1, only delayed and for more profit:

We're now risking $17 -- the preflop $7 plus the postflop $10 continuation bet -- to win $7.35, and assuming that villain is folding 1/3rd of the time preflop we make an profit from this strategy if:

EV = (1/3)*(+2.35) + (2/3)*[F*(7.35) + (1-F)*(-17)] = 0
F = 65%

So if villain folds the flop 65% of the time, this strategy is profitable, even beyond the times when we win later in the hand or win at showdown. Against a preflop reraise and a flop bet, if villain is playing 16% of his hands this 65% folding rate isn't too far off.

Alternatively, villain may fold the flop too little as well -- at that point, villain is playing like a calling station after his preflop raise. We need to adjust our holdings accordingly, but if we simply play our superpremiums we should be able to get some good stackings out of his horrific postflop play, and that will also put money in our pockets.

Three-betting and responding appropriately to three-bets is one of the weakest points in my game. I'm currently thinking through this issue in great detail, and my thoughts are in flux at the moment. However, it seems to me that most opponents make one of two mistakes: either they call three-bets FAR too infrequently, giving you immediate profit, or the call three-bets FAR too frequently, giving you profits later on. Identifying which type of opponent you're facing is the tricky part, but once you do, the money should follow fairly quickly.

[traz]

On that tangent, I frequently use a note of c3bf, which means that villain will call 3 bets and then fold them on the flop if he misses. I love these guys.

[Chomp]

Pokey's new custom title is 2 words too long.