10/25 Big Draw Shut Out?

[Hattifnatt]

def lead turn, call the 190 after you decided to check.

[Equal]

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i don't think you have 15 outs here

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True. If we had 15 clean outs we would be good to go. But even with less outs it could still be correct to call.

[Equal]

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Yes, all most nits will hate the raise.

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Obviously! However, check-raising with any intention of folding can't be good with your stack.

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Well, they are two separate actions. It's not like if I check-raise I have to call a shove. If we get raised, then we re-evaluate. It's definitely close.

[Equal]

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def lead turn, call the 190 after you decided to check.

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Yeah I think this is the real decision - which line to take on the turn. Just betting again, or checking and see what develops. Once the guy bets so small maybe it's just best to take a very cheap river with a boatload of outs?

With the small bet and call it seemed like weakness especially after the flop action. So I thought at the time a raise is good because 1) may take it down right there 2) if I get called its okay because I'm building the pot and I have a ton of outs to make a very strong hand, 3) might be able to fold out a bare nut flush draw.

[king_of_drafts]

I mean, I don't hate the c/r. In fact I like it a hell of a lot more than c-c. But once you get shoved on, and still have another guy to act, and all you have is a hand with a lot of dubious outs, I think you have to fold.

[Equal]

I think your point has merit KOD, but UTG did fold, so it's HU.

[Equal]

s above, we need >29.4% equity to have a profitable call. Here's a super tight range of hands for BB that kills us - consists of:

Straights T7 and 75, plus nut flush draw+pair A9ss, A6ss:

Board: 8s 3s 6h 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.126% 20.19% 03.93% 231 45.00 { Ks7s }
Hand 1: 75.874% 71.94% 03.93% 823 45.00 { As9s, As6s, T7s, 75s, T7o, 75o }

[EC10]

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s above, we need >29.4% equity to have a profitable call. Here's a super tight range of hands for BB that kills us - consists of:

Straights T7 and 75, plus nut flush draw+pair A9ss, A6ss:

Board: 8s 3s 6h 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.126% 20.19% 03.93% 231 45.00 { Ks7s }
Hand 1: 75.874% 71.94% 03.93% 823 45.00 { As9s, As6s, T7s, 75s, T7o, 75o }

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looks like a call then no?

[king_of_drafts]

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s above, we need >29.4% equity to have a profitable call. Here's a super tight range of hands for BB that kills us - consists of:

Straights T7 and 75, plus nut flush draw+pair A9ss, A6ss:

Board: 8s 3s 6h 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.126% 20.19% 03.93% 231 45.00 { Ks7s }
Hand 1: 75.874% 71.94% 03.93% 823 45.00 { As9s, As6s, T7s, 75s, T7o, 75o }

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looks like a call then no?

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what? no.

Equal I think you can put A5ss and ATss in there sometimes, as well as some of the pair +fd combinations. Can you weight them? They are obviously less likely to be shoved than the nut draws and straights.

From the looks of it, this is breakeven call in the best case scenario.

Edit, maybe even toss sets in there.

[mustmuck]

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Yes, all most nits will hate the raise.

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Obviously! However, check-raising with any intention of folding can't be good with your stack.

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Well, they are two separate actions. It's not like if I check-raise I have to call a shove. If we get raised, then we re-evaluate. It's definitely close.

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Sure they're "separate actions", but they're definitely related. CR'ing a big draw without a plan seems bad.

Anyway, I didn't read the OP properly and thought it was UTG shoving. I'd imagine you're looking at a straight almost 100% of the time here.