Barry Bonds Home Run Prop

[TomG]

B.Bonds hits a HR today +310
B.Bonds no HR today -400

5Dimes posts this prop every day. The odds are pretty much static, regardless of SFG's opposing pitcher. From what I can tell, 5D calculates this prop by dividing Bonds current season HRs rate per game of (20 - 1) / 94 = 20.2% = +/-395 (Bonds HR'd twice on July 19th). So it looks like the book is juicing the YES side pretty heavy. But those are average stats against a league average pitchers in an average ball park. He's obviously less likely to hit a HR against a better pitcher or in a pitcher's park such as Petco this weekend. Furthermore, pitchers may start to pitch around him a bit more than usual as he tries to tie Aaron's record. I see value in betting the NO against favorable pitching match-ups such as tonight.

[TomG]

Actually, Bonds also hit 2 HRs/Game this season on April 13th. That gives him a season HR rate of (20 -2 ) / 94 = 19.1% = +/- 422. I'm liking the NO side even more...

[rsigley]

is petco still one of the worst places for home runs this year?

i know 04/05 they were the worst

06 was somewhere in the middle

dunno what its like this year tho

[gtrunner57]

I put a lot of thought into this prop and this is how I would look at it.

First I would say that given Barry Bonds' skill level and the fact that he plays his home games in SF and will be playing this game in San Diego, you could probably expect him to hit a HR a little over once every 20 PA (20.3 is what I came up with) against league-average pitching. Now I would divide this number by .87, which is how much less of a rate compared to the league-average I came up with for how often a park-adjusted Greg Maddux and Padre bullpen combine to give up homeruns per batter faced.

If you're counting, that would put Barry Bonds at a HR once every 23.4 PA in this game. Given the context of the SF lineup and it being in SD, against league average pitching I would expect about 4.1 PA for Barry Bonds. Now take into account that I would estimate today's Padre pitching staff to have a park-adjusted WHIP at a rate of .95 of that of league-average pitching, I say you could reasonably expect Bonds to have about 4.05 PA. Since there is the chance he could squander a PA from being pinch-run too early, and just making it a round number, I say Bonds gets 4 plate appearances tonight.

If you take it at 4/23.4 giving bonds a 17.1% chance to hit a HR tonight, that would seem to give -400 on NO a return of 3.6%. However, this analysis doesn't even take into account the fact that he may not play in the game at all (maybe this would be No Actioned - I haven't even looked at the bet). Other factors like (on the extreme) Bonds getting intentionally walked at an unusually high rate since he is close to the record seem to suggest that there is no value in either side of this bet.

That's just my analysis and I'd be interested to hear what people think on this.

edit: Um, wait. I just realized getting intentionally walked or being pinch-run too early or whatever ADDS value to the NO side. I don't know what I was thinking, but this bet does look pretty good.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
I put a lot of thought into this prop and this is how I would look at it.

First I would say that given Barry Bonds' skill level and the fact that he plays his home games in SF and will be playing this game in San Diego, you could probably expect him to hit a HR a little over once every 20 PA (20.3 is what I came up with) against league-average pitching. Now I would divide this number by .87, which is how much less of a rate compared to the league-average I came up with for how often a park-adjusted Greg Maddux and Padre bullpen combine to give up homeruns per batter faced.

If you're counting, that would put Barry Bonds at a HR once every 23.4 PA in this game. Given the context of the SF lineup and it being in SD, against league average pitching I would expect about 4.1 PA for Barry Bonds. Now take into account that I would estimate today's Padre pitching staff to have a park-adjusted WHIP at a rate of .95 of that of league-average pitching, I say you could reasonably expect Bonds to have about 4.05 PA. Since there is the chance he could squander a PA from being pinch-run too early, and just making it a round number, I say Bonds gets 4 plate appearances tonight.

If you take it at 4/23.4 giving bonds a 17.1% chance to hit a HR tonight, that would seem to give -400 on NO a return of 3.6%. However, this analysis doesn't even take into account the fact that he may not play in the game at all (maybe this would be No Actioned - I haven't even looked at the bet). Other factors like (on the extreme) Bonds getting intentionally walked at an unusually high rate since he is close to the record seem to suggest that there is no value in either side of this bet.

That's just my analysis and I'd be interested to hear what people think on this.

[/ QUOTE ]

A+

[ThaHero]

How closely have you watched the line? Does it ever move? I could easily see some Giants fan saying "Of COURSE he's gonna hit a homer. He hasn't hit one in a few games, he's due!" and pushing the line ever further away.