AJhh Turn Line FPS.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

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actually it's QJ-QT vs KJ-KT, and thus more K combos. Does he really open with Q9? He could also have A9s and just calling down?

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i wrote a long reply for this 2 days ago but my comp crashed and this is the first time back online.... so:

first up, yep Qx was intending to refer only to relevant Q hands. QK-J is a large part of his range, as is QT-9s. Q8-7s is probably borderline but has some heavily discounted part. my bad for not making that clearer.

here is the thing about Ax, and some heavily discounted PPs (disc because they either raise preflop or fold flop). It is calling us down. By not betting the turn we miss out on 1BB.

The question is where do we make the trade off... against:

Axs + PPdisc = we lose 1BB with this play (-1BB)
Qx = we save 2BB (+2BB)
KJ-T = if we assume he bets 50% of the time, we make .42BB, lessened by the 8% he hits his gutshot (+.42BB)

The thing is, if we combo range him, it seems pretty clear that overall we are +ev on this line, even with the tradeoff, yes?

Of course this is all due to us not being able to fold at any point, if we could accurately bet/fold the turn the hand is different.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

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If he's a decent TAG, then your turn check probably indicates that you're calling a river bet or you've completely given up on a junky hand that has little/no value on this board. Do you have information that makes you think he bluffs too often?

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Do you think a river bet here with JT would be too often?

Generally when you check behind the turn, they bet the river, unless they are passive with a really marginal hand like TT.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

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This is quite technical. I've read it a few times and I still don't get it. Why not bet the turn?

If he has a queen don't you think villain would have bet turn or at leact check raise in which case you fold. This costs 1 bet, same as calling down the river.

If he doesn't have a queen you hardly want to give him a free card.

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this hand is played under the assumption we cant fold at any point for metagame reasons.

and yep its $5/$10

[Aaron W.]

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If he's a decent TAG, then your turn check probably indicates that you're calling a river bet or you've completely given up on a junky hand that has little/no value on this board. Do you have information that makes you think he bluffs too often?

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Do you think a river bet here with JT would be too often?

Generally when you check behind the turn, they bet the river, unless they are passive with a really marginal hand like TT.

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Reads matter. Weak-loose players will check behind and call a river bet too often, making bluffing a mistake. If an aggressive player checks behind, something is fishy and I wouldn't bluff the river. You need to find yourself against someone who can fold JJ-99 to make bluffing an effective play. A weak-tight-ish player may qualify, as would a good player who thinks you're tight and passive, and thinks you're on a somewhat narrow hand range when you raise preflop and check-call the flop.