#11
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Re: AJo flop MP and BDFD (nut flush). Raise for a free card?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] if you are calling the flop it is because there is a chance that you are ahead but do not want to invest too much to learn this [/ QUOTE ] What's wrong with calling the flop because you have the odds to draw? Turn is an easy fold now. I like the way this hand was played. [ QUOTE ] raise to see where you are [/ QUOTE ] Also, before someone else says it, this is rarely a good reason to raise. You will end up paying off better hands and having worse hands fold. i.e. in this case BB may fold a weak king, but raise a two pair or top pair. Hey, when did I become a veteran? 1200 posts? [/ QUOTE ] IMO ... with the amount of redraws on that flop you can not give yourself enough outs to draw ... calling the flop counting all your outs as good is closed also (once you include rake) ... either fold the flop (even if you do hit an out, you're going to get into big trouble a lot of the time) or call down (if the other guy doesn't get frisky) because the guy might be a retard (or, making a move) |
#12
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Re: AJo flop MP and BDFD (nut flush). Raise for a free card?
raise flop
as played call turn |
#13
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Re: AJo flop MP and BDFD (nut flush). Raise for a free card?
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raise flop as played call turn [/ QUOTE ] If you call this turn, you must be planning on showing down. So if you call a bet here and on the river. Your effective odds are around 1:3. So that means you have to be good 25% of the time (or is it 33%, I always get confused on that and it is a big difference in this hand). So 25% of the time, you are hoping he is double c-betting a draw OOP or that he is betting a worse Jack. I guess it is possible with hands like QJ and JT, but those hands only make up a fraction of his range hand distribution wise. I don't know, I could be wrong (it happens sometimes), but I dont think this pot is worth chasing. |
#14
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Re: AJo flop MP and BDFD (nut flush). Raise for a free card?
[ QUOTE ]
with the amount of redraws on that flop you can not give yourself enough outs to draw [/ QUOTE ] Needing ~5.5 outs to call on the flop, you may be right. You have 1-2 for your Jacks, 1-2 for your Aces and 1.5 for your BDFD, so you are looking at a minimum of 3.5 and maximum of 5.5 outs. I'm just not a big fan of this hand due to the smallish pot and your average hand. I guess he could be betting something like QJ and JT or middle or bottom pair with a heart draw or straight draw. |
#15
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Re: AJo flop MP and BDFD (nut flush). Raise for a free card?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] raise flop as played call turn [/ QUOTE ] If you call this turn, you must be planning on showing down. So if you call a bet here and on the river. Your effective odds are around 1:3. So that means you have to be good 25% of the time (or is it 33%, I always get confused on that and it is a big difference in this hand). So 25% of the time, you are hoping he is double c-betting a draw OOP or that he is betting a worse Jack. I guess it is possible with hands like QJ and JT, but those hands only make up a fraction of his range hand distribution wise. I don't know, I could be wrong (it happens sometimes), but I dont think this pot is worth chasing. [/ QUOTE ] actually im planning to value raise the river ui provided the river is a complete brick. we are good like 80%+ here imo |
#16
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Re: AJo flop MP and BDFD (nut flush). Raise for a free card?
Wow.
So you raise/fold the river then? |
#17
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Re: AJo flop MP and BDFD (nut flush). Raise for a free card?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] raise flop as played call turn [/ QUOTE ] If you call this turn, you must be planning on showing down. So if you call a bet here and on the river. Your effective odds are around 1:3. So that means you have to be good 25% of the time (or is it 33%, I always get confused on that and it is a big difference in this hand). So 25% of the time, you are hoping he is double c-betting a draw OOP or that he is betting a worse Jack. I guess it is possible with hands like QJ and JT, but those hands only make up a fraction of his range hand distribution wise. I don't know, I could be wrong (it happens sometimes), but I dont think this pot is worth chasing. [/ QUOTE ] actually im planning to value raise the river ui provided the river is a complete brick. we are good like 80%+ here imo [/ QUOTE ] note to self ... stay the hell away from ESKiMO |
#18
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Re: AJo flop MP and BDFD (nut flush). Raise for a free card?
[ QUOTE ]
Wow. So you raise/fold the river then? [/ QUOTE ] raise/call obv.... just calling the river isnt terrible either but i think you are definitely losing value vs PPs, 9x and Jx, plus missed draws that will call 'to see'. Kx/2pair isnt 3betting, and i doubt he double donks QT |
#19
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Re: AJo flop MP and BDFD (nut flush). Raise for a free card?
interesting question
the facts are at the moment, we don't know what the BB has, he could have any of the three flop cards. We do know he didn't raise preflop so we are going to assume he didn't have a very strong hand. As the BB is unknown it's difficult to know what type of player he is and his raising range. it could be a bizarre continuation bet? it could also be likely that he is on a draw, either a flush draw or a straight draw. I think maybe we should check or fold because we do only have second pair, the advantage we have is that we have position and if he doesn't bet on the turn we can either bet and try and knock him out or check it to see the river for free. The other problem we have is that we aren't sure if the SB is going to stick around. So if calling keeps him in and adding to the pot then I think calling is better than raising. This is one of those tricky situations where you call down and find out he had a king. In fact I have changed my mind, I think I would probably fold until I knew more about the player. |
#20
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Re: AJo flop MP and BDFD (nut flush). Raise for a free card?
i think i'd value raise the flop as i think we're ahead, oh, say 2/3 to 3/4 of the time? and yes if the turn is another heart we have the option of checking behind if we want.
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