*** UFC 66 : Official prefight thread ***

[Gkeuler]

This line is insane (Singer +381), singer is a complete mismatch for okami, styles make fights and okami is destined to lose this one first off okami is coming in with a 4.5 Inch reach disadvantage, bad considering the only way he takes people down is thru a clinch/pushin to the wall / bodylock, secondly singer's striking is just as good if not better then okami's if it stays standing the advantage is def towards singer, most importantly however are these factors, Singer is STRONGER then okami, his bodylock takedowns wont work and he wont be able to get singer to the fence for a clinch/trip and even if he does singer has a strong ground game and a good gaurd, he wont be able to TKO him, and we all know he wont submit him, finnally I see okami being weak towards submissions, but I also beleive singer could end this fight in anyway, KO due to his reach advantage, descion via lay/pray, or a submission like a guillotine choke when okami tries a takedown.

But then again, I gotta be off somewhere the bookies cant be this far off (+381), perfomify what do you think?

ps- since using 2+2/Fezzik's my sports picks are 12-3, thank you guys alot my bankroll is flourishing

*Copied from my other post, Shipit... )

[igetbadbeat]

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This line is insane (Singer +381), singer is a complete mismatch for okami, styles make fights and okami is destined to lose this one first off okami is coming in with a 4.5 Inch reach disadvantage, bad considering the only way he takes people down is thru a clinch/pushin to the wall / bodylock, secondly singer's striking is just as good if not better then okami's if it stays standing the advantage is def towards singer, most importantly however are these factors, Singer is STRONGER then okami, his bodylock takedowns wont work and he wont be able to get singer to the fence for a clinch/trip and even if he does singer has a strong ground game and a good gaurd, he wont be able to TKO him, and we all know he wont submit him, finnally I see okami being weak towards submissions, but I also beleive singer could end this fight in anyway, KO due to his reach advantage, descion via lay/pray, or a submission like a guillotine choke when okami tries a takedown.

But then again, I gotta be off somewhere the bookies cant be this far off (+381), perfomify what do you think?

ps- since using 2+2/Fezzik's my sports picks are 12-3, thank you guys alot my bankroll is flourishing

*Copied from my other post, Shipit... )

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Should have copied my response.

[zer0]

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Who has Forrest been training with? What about Jardine? Anyone know?

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Jardine trains at Greg Jackson's acadamy (same place GSP spent alot of time at before the Penn and Hughes II fights). I'm not sure where Griffin has been training.

Anyways, the line that suprised me the most is Bisping/Schafer. Bisping is coming off a long layoff, and has never really been tested, yet is a huge favorite against a guy with a significant edge in the ground game. Yes, Bisping has a good sprawl, but Schafer is a kind of guy who can submit someone from any position (as shown vs. MacDonald on the Liddell/Babalu card). Bisping should probably be the favorite, but if he wasnt a TUF star, this would be a much much closer line. Alot of value on Schafer, IMO.

[rush66]

TrixTrix has been talking about line movements for ufc. I know where to find movments for line history on nba, nfl, etc. However, where can I find them for ufc. Is he just tracking them himself. Thanks.

[flow]

In my opinion, liddel at anything under -300 is +ev. The line started out at -330 which i thought was about right. Everybody talks about the TUF'ers being over rated because of the show, but a lot of the old UFC champs are overrated as well, Tito and Mir in particular. I mean, Tito looked like [censored] against Forest. He barely squeezed out a win. And who else has he fought latley? Shamrock? Tito is going down hard.
I dont know if i like any of the other lines. i will probably take MacDonald for a small bet, Bisping for a big bet, and i will be making $ on griffin/Jardine no matter what. As a Christmas present to those of you who see this soon. Right now, Griffin is -260 at sportsbook and Jardine is +285 at bof. I just maxed out that bet. Good for some free cash.
Is there anyone out there who thinbks liddel at -245 isnt a good bet?

[goodsamaritan]

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In my opinion, liddel at anything under -300 is +ev. The line started out at -330 which i thought was about right. Everybody talks about the TUF'ers being over rated because of the show, but a lot of the old UFC champs are overrated as well, Tito and Mir in particular. I mean, Tito looked like [censored] against Forest. He barely squeezed out a win. And who else has he fought latley? Shamrock? Tito is going down hard.

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I agree completely re: Liddell. Tito has got a big name because he has a big mouth and had wins over marginal competition several years ago when the UFC was on life support and he was the only big fighter in the UFC. But the fact remains that Tito has not won a decisive victory over a very good opponent in several years. He's decisioned Cote, a blown up MW who took that fight on short notice, Vitor, who is not that good anymore but went to a very close decision, and Forrest, who won that fight in many people's opinions. OK, he demolished Ken Shamrock, but that means nothing.

Some people have made a big deal about how Tito only lost the first fight because he got poked in the eye and tried to stand with Chuck. But even aside from the eye poke, Tito was doing nothing in that fight. And he did try to take Chuck down, but got stuffed.

I see this fight being very similar to the the first fight, except that it will probably last a little longer. This fight is a really bad style matchup for Tito, and I don't think anything has really changed in the past two years to have made the matchup any better for Tito. Chuck has great takedown defense, and Tito's only real weapon is takedowns followed by GnP. Tito's standup looked bush league against Forest, and he only has one submission victory in his entire career. Even if TIto does get Chuck down, I doubt he'll finish him there. I have no doubt that Chuck is fully prepared to withstand some GnP from TIto.

I'm predicting a Liddell TKO in the 3rd or 4th round. I see a greater than 75% chance of Chuck winning and highly reccomend him anywhere inside of -300.

One thing that gives me pause in that reccomendation is the fact that Performify has intimated that he may bet on Tito (though he hasn't posted his official recs yet). Performify is very knowledgeable about MMA and his picks are usually very spot on, but he is not perfect. I think he overvalued Arlovski over Sylvia and Hughes over St. Pierre. I think he may be making a similar mistake with this fight. He has suggested in other posts that Liddell may be out of shape, but I see no evidence of that other than his beer gut, which he has always had and it has never held him back. And yes Liddell is getting little old, but 37 is not that old. And even if he is not in the best shape, that does not change the fact that this fight is still a really bad matchup for Tito. Conditioning won't be a factor if Liddell gets the early finish.

I welcome any constructive criticism about this fight, btu the more I think about this fight the more I like Liddell.

[Performify]

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In my opinion, liddel at anything under -300 is +ev. The line started out at -330 which i thought was about right.


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Liddell opened about -215. Not at -330. Might have been a typo and you meant -230 which certainly could have been the first line you saw.

But Liddell definitely opened just a shade above -200 and has been bet up from there. Its peaked about -260 and has been floating around -240 to -250 now.

Just wanted to clarify line movements. My picks go to my UFCJunkie editor in about 15 minutes and as soon as he's edited I'll give you guys the first heads up.

[flow]

"Liddell opened about -215. Not at -330. Might have been a typo and you meant -230 which certainly could have been the first line you saw."

Where from? On sportsbook about 2 months ago im pretty sure it was up at least around -300. I didnt write it down because i didnt take it so i could be wrong, but i thought it was at least -300.

[Performify]

If you guys really feel Liddell -300 is the correct line than you're reading this line as tremendously off. You'd be talking about a 10% edge in the title fight, with two of the most popular UFC fighters, and one who has looked unstopppable for the past few years of fights. Most of the money and most of the public perception is on Liddell here, not Ortiz in my opinion.

Again, it opened around -200 and hasn't really approached -275 let alone -300.

I really don't think that line is that far off.

I think Liddell around -200 would be a fair value, personally. Maybe even a slight shade under, say -195. My upper bounds would be -220 I'd say. I definitely don't think Liddell is the play at -250 and certainly not at -300.

-300 you're saying Liddell wins this 75% of the time, and I think that's high. i think this fight will be closer than a lot expect. Liddell is certainly favored for a reason, should be favored, but I do firmly believe the true line is closer to 66% (-200) than 75% (-300).

As such my recommended play for this fight is going to be a mild value play on Ortiz around +230 to +240. I was able to secure Ortiz +241 and I'm pretty happy with that right now.

[Performify]

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"Liddell opened about -215. Not at -330. Might have been a typo and you meant -230 which certainly could have been the first line you saw."

Where from? On sportsbook about 2 months ago im pretty sure it was up at least around -300. I didnt write it down because i didnt take it so i could be wrong, but i thought it was at least -300.

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Possibly on a site with significantly inferior lines to Pinnacle. But PInny has had the fight up the longest of anyone to my knowledge, and IIRC it opened around -200 Chuck, not -300.

I have a recorded line (that I'm certain is correct, can provide a screenshot if you really want) of 3:44pm 14-Oct-06 at Ortiz +201 which would have made Liddell around -220ish.