tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec

[crockpot]

i like this one. i can see why people would take the other side; tomlinson is on pace to top that mark easily, and he's on a huge roll lately, so he has "momentum".

i know TDs aren't exactly a poisson distribution, but the bet is breakeven at a poisson rate of 27 TD/season, which only one guy in history has topped.

tomlinson may sit out the last game of the season or at least most of it. even so, i think 11 TD in 6 games is a lot to ask for. any significant injury is an automatic under. guys who put up a huge TD season tend to regress a lot the next year, simply because the number of TD opportunities tends to level out over time. (the exception is priest holmes, who got hurt and missed half the next year.)

comments?