Colts moneyline question

[FishHooks]

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There's a ton of sharp money on Dallas. This game is definitely BSP vs. sharps, though it really looks like a huge coin flip and the books win.

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How do you know the sharps are putting money on dallas?

[SonnyJay]

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There's a ton of sharp money on Dallas. This game is definitely BSP vs. sharps, though it really looks like a huge coin flip and the books win.

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How do you know the sharps are putting money on dallas?

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Almost all the sharp picks that I've seen written/published have been for Dallas, FWIW.

I believe that a large part of this is due to the very good Dallas run game going up against the very terrible Indy run D. Also, for all the pub that Indy has received they've been pretty disappointing in a good percentage of the games...say what you will about "coming through when it matters," but they seem to let a lot of teams hang around.

I made a kneejerk bet on Indy at -1 -104 early in the week when I saw the line, and the line's moved in the other direction. I don't hate the wager, I just don't think there's a ton of value in it, if any.

-SonnyJay

[Jordan]

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There's a ton of sharp money on Dallas. This game is definitely BSP vs. sharps, though it really looks like a huge coin flip and the books win.

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sharps are sharps for a reason. you and i may not see why dallas is the better bet, but if all the sharp money is on dallas there must be a reason for it. real sharps don't bet without an edge.

[Jack of Arcades]

Dallas is at PK -115 on sportsbook.com 87% of the money has come down on the Colts. Whoever said BSP + Sharps is right on.

[paperchamp]

Whatever the sharps see, I don't see it. Indy has a lot of weaknesses this year but Dallas is not a very good football team. I bet on Indy. Go BSP!

[FishHooks]

So why does eveyone like Dallas? In my opinion dallas has to be at their best to beat indy, and how often is dallas at their best.

[Lori]

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So why does eveyone like Dallas? In my opinion dallas has to be at their best to beat indy, and how often is dallas at their best.

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This is a must win game for one of these two teams. That team is not the Colts who will have easier spots to clinch their playoff berth. (Assuming they need one more win)
They didn't really care last year when they were 14-0 and I think they'll start playing down even earlier this year.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys need every win they can get. They'll be fired up for this one.

Maybe I read too much into motivation, but my results have changed significantly for the better since I started overrating the effects of 'needing a win'

Lori

[TheRover]

DAL+1 is my biggest bet of the year.

[tomdemaine]

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DAL+1 is my biggest bet of the year.

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How often does the one point come into play that you should take this instead of the moneyline?

[playersare]

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DAL+1 is my biggest bet of the year.

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How often does the one point come into play that you should take this instead of the moneyline?

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the +/- 1 pushes against the spread about 2% of the time (specifically on that team which gets or receives the point). colts have won two games by exactly 1 this year, but they were actually big favorites in each case.

if there was a PK -105 on the cowboys available at the time, then +1 -110 would probably be paying too much since the "half point" between PK and 1 would only be worth 2c (books generally do not assign any value to the +/- 1/2 because of the extreme improbability of an NFL tie). in comparison to a PK -107, it's closer to a tossup. and of course if you're getting a 'free' full point off consensus, it'd be silly not to take it.