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#11
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If you bet 50, pot is 284. If he pushes his 100, you have to call 100 to win the 384 because there's ~10 chance he has a boat here.
I like my bet of 80 because he's getting 4-1 on his call. He'd have to call most hands, maybe even an ace high missed flush draw? Also, if he was on a draw, say AT c, then you're getting paid when he pushes. |
#12
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You won't see a boat risk a check behind here very often. Bet $99 and call his push. [/ QUOTE ] What hands are pushing for an extra 50 over this bet that don't just call a push? [/ QUOTE ] Not many, but some might call less than a push sensing weakness. What hand that hero beats can call a push here? A naked T is it. I am open to changing my mind on th ebet size, but the key is to make a bet that villain can call with [i]anything [i] that isn't a draw. [/ QUOTE ] I see where you're coming from, I just don't think a 3/5/7/PP less than ten calls 100 or a push. Maybe if you bet 50 or 75 you could get a call. In most cases it doesn't matter much I don't think. |
#13
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I am open to changing my mind on th ebet size, but the key is to make a bet that villain can call with anything that isn't a draw. [/ QUOTE ] If you bet $50, do you think calling the c/r AI is good or bad? (Please justify.) [/ QUOTE ] Well, the math has already been done, but I really think that it takes a very good read for villain to check that river with a full house. The 'tricky' fish will usually lead for a small value bet when they have a monster and let hero off cheap. Here I can't put villain on a hand that beats hero enough of the time to ever consider folding. I think trying to figure out the most villain will call is the exercise here. If villain plays sets this passively that is very good for hero in the long run. |
#14
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I'm betting the guy had AcTc. This would explain his pause. He thought you might bluff at the missed draw. Then he'd nail you with the trip Ts. I think a bet from 50-80 is a good bet and will get called/pushed on this guys range.
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#15
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river is an easy shove
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#16
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[ QUOTE ]
river is an easy shove [/ QUOTE ] Based on the action, what hands does villain have that he stacks off with? |
#17
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AcTc......or a boat.
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#18
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can you post the results?
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