Assani's NFL Wagering Thread

[Assani Fisher]

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Someone PM'd me with a few questions and told me to recheck my Week 2 thread for a dumb maths mistake. Thanks for the heads-up.

There is a blatant error on my part in that thread, as I 2bl counted the Oregon win as 2 wins, stupidly. Absolutely my fault, no excuse even if I was drunk, I should have simply written down all the picks on each side of the W/L column instead of doing it on-screen at midnite, and done it sober. Lesson learned.

My apologies to everyone, and my sincere thanks to the board for pointing it out.

The loss on the donk parlay, was, in fact, specifically noted by me in that thread:
'and a -0.1 loss on the donk parlay...'

The Utah add’tl vig in undoing and redoing that bet was included, because the bets are to win 1u net [if 1unit is the size]. The risk was the -105 vig on the +15.5 line + the prior vig that I had to recoup. Utah covered, and it was recouped for a NET win of 1u. Like most posters, I don’t risk 1u to win .95238 or .9091 on ATS bets.

It has apparently been claimed that I am 0-2 ML instead of 0-1.

The only ML bet I can remember making or find in the past 3 weeks college FB is Arkansas, so I am fairly certain 0-1 ML is correct.

So, apparently, I am not the only one at 2p2 that makes errors at basic maths. Does that make them a liar? Most of us would say no, right? I hope we don’t get a name-calling forum war next time a poster makes a math error or typo.

My record ATS should be 18-12, not 19-12, and 0-1 ML. Again, no excuse for 2bl counting Oregon as 2 wins.

Neither of those is indicative of *anything* in the long-term. Maybe if I somehow got to 180-120 by running hot, but virtually no one is capable of that without running 2 std devs above normal, and I doubt I am that lucky. 54% for anyone is a huge winrate.

Yet another reason not to blindly follow anyone as Perf says, instead, learn how to handicap, or simply arb and middle if you are incapable of that. Pushing ALL-IN on any one game will eventually lead to Busto!


edit: I should also thank the person who found the error in my record. Thanks.

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[TheRover]

lolthread

[NajdorfDefense]

Assani,

Our moderator wrote:

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Come on -- you honestly think you get any value -- let alone everything you wrote about above -- out of writing down "Week 1: 3-0" and following that with "no links or analysis avaiable"? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
.

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Is Perf the only one allowed to provide thread commentary in your eyes? If you think he is, perhaps consider listening to him, and I'll leave it at that.

Good luck this season, except on our bet, I need to go drop something heavy on Kitna.

[Post-Oak]

You haven't addressed how you find even money (lol) and nickel line bets on Sunday night, a full week before the scheduled games.


[ QUOTE ]
Someone PM'd me with a few questions and told me to recheck my Week 2 thread for a dumb maths mistake. Thanks for the heads-up.

There is a blatant error on my part in that thread, as I 2bl counted the Oregon win as 2 wins, stupidly. Absolutely my fault, no excuse even if I was drunk, I should have simply written down all the picks on each side of the W/L column instead of doing it on-screen at midnite, and done it sober. Lesson learned.


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you should keep a spreadsheet of your bets or something. It's a good way to track results, and will help you know if you are a winning bettor.

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The loss on the donk parlay, was, in fact, specifically noted by me in that thread:
'and a -0.1 loss on the donk parlay...'
It has apparently been claimed that I am 0-2 ML instead of 0-1.

The only ML bet I can remember making or find in the past 3 weeks college FB is Arkansas, so I am fairly certain 0-1 ML is correct.

So, apparently, I am not the only one at 2p2 that makes errors at basic maths. Does that make them a liar? Most of us would say no, right? I hope we don’t get a name-calling forum war next time a poster makes a math error or typo.


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I was including your "donk" moneyline parlay in the ML category. It was not a math mistake.

Also, you say that the win was acknowledged, but why wouldn't you include it in your YTD unit results then? Why ignore it, when you throw "winners" like "fun sized bet on AF" into both your W/L and YTD units, when you didn't even provide a spread or the units bet???

[Post-Oak]

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Also, you say that the win was acknowledged,


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Meant to say "you say that the LOSS was acknowledged"

Also, in your new Week 4 thread it seems you don't intend to keep track of your "donk tease" loss. I see you mention it, but don't intend to track these "donk" plays (unless they win???) in any results.

How big is a donk tease? Was it smaller than a "fun sized bet" (which gets booked as a 0.25 unit bet if a winner)? Or was it as big as a "degen play" (which goes as a 1 unit play if a winner)?

I think I am starting to get the hang of how you keep track of your record.

[Thremp]

Assani,

Personally I think you have no clue what helps noobs or others. I think my posting helps people earn checkz. Obv.

[iggymcfly]

I think it's pretty standard to not count a parlay that pays greater than 10:1 in your YTD record. I never would even consider including something like that regardless of how much I spent on it. The point about paying less than 5% juice on average when betting games on Sundays does seem valid though. I would be interested to see how Naj responds to that.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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What scares off n00bs from this forum is not me/Thremp/b00t asking a poster *not* to tout or guarantee picks, or making fun of I HAS A LOCKX!, but threads like these that are the most heavily trafficked threads on the front page. My two cents, anyway.

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ND,

If you, Thremp, and a few others never set foot in this thread, then this thread would be about 80 posts smaller and would be solely focusing on analyzing the football games.

But you guys felt the need to play board cops, and look what happened. That is what is hurting the board imo.


Assani

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not hurting the forum IMO

they're actually being quite helpful in teaching what it takes to win at sportsbetting

you can ignore them and bet for fun/entertainment...I understand that wish

if, however, you want to win, the harshest posters typically know the most about that and set you on your way

We don't let people post in poker strat forums explaining moves for fun...why would we let that in this forum?

there is a sporting events forum for fun/entertainment in sports

[THAY3R]

<3 Assani

[Assani Fisher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]



What scares off n00bs from this forum is not me/Thremp/b00t asking a poster *not* to tout or guarantee picks, or making fun of I HAS A LOCKX!, but threads like these that are the most heavily trafficked threads on the front page. My two cents, anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

ND,

If you, Thremp, and a few others never set foot in this thread, then this thread would be about 80 posts smaller and would be solely focusing on analyzing the football games.

But you guys felt the need to play board cops, and look what happened. That is what is hurting the board imo.


Assani

[/ QUOTE ]

not hurting the forum IMO

they're actually being quite helpful in teaching what it takes to win at sportsbetting

you can ignore them and bet for fun/entertainment...I understand that wish

if, however, you want to win, the harshest posters typically know the most about that and set you on your way

We don't let people post in poker strat forums explaining moves for fun...why would we let that in this forum?

there is a sporting events forum for fun/entertainment in sports

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I'm not betting for "fun" this year at all. I'm taking it seriously and trying to win. I was clear about that in OP.