A rag or 98o?

[Gonso]

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Gonso says you can't use pokerstove to arrive at this conclusion because you can't take into acount folds.

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That's not quite what I said.

You can use Pokerstove to calculate your equity against a given range, but you must also account for the times you aren't called. For example, say it's folded to you on the SB and you push with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Then let's say that the BB will call you with the top 15% of hands according to Pokerstove.

Okay, your hand in this case will be about a 57-43 dog when called. However, since you will be called only 15% of the time, the other 85% percent of the time you simply take his BB and whatever antes are out there. This adds to the expectation of you shove, how much only depends on the amount of the antes, blinds, and stacks. If you just go by pokerstove range calcs alone, how do you account for all the free money you get when he folds?

Let's say in this case, you have t4k chips at a 9-handed table, and the BB has you covered. The blinds are 300/600 with 100 antes. After posting, you have t4600 left and the pot is t1,800. Now, if you have that A7s and shove (and he calls with that range above), 85% of the time you simply take in an t1,800 pot. When you are called, you'll have 43% equity in that t10,900 pot (on average), which is hardly a bad spot considering all the money already in the pot and your shortstack situation.

I'm harping on SNGPT here because it's a better tool for the job. You can put in ranges and it will account for the times they can't call, and the value of the blinds and antes. It will give you the EV of jamming various hands against various ranges and various opponents.

And phzon can speak for himself but it sounded like he was referring to card removal effects. That is, if you HAVE an ace, there are only three aces left for your opponents to have. So, you'll run into AK or AJ or whatever less often when you shove with A7.

[Gonso]

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The problem in pushing with A,rag is that if someone wakes us with a better ace they're gonna call you...now you're dominated. Whereas you push with 9,8 suited you more than likely have live cards with flush and straight possiblities.

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Being dominated sucks, but you have to consider the whole range and not just the better aces that will call you. AK and AQ are very much dominated by AA too, but that doesn't make it less playable than 98s in a jam/fold spot against a reasonable range of hands (that is, not just AA). Also, what happens when your 98 gets called by 99 or 88, or A9? That's part of a range that will call you and you're awfully dominated there.

There's a typo in my last post... you started with t5,100 chips, not t4,000. It's not really a big deal in the example but I know some nit's going to show up and remind me that I can't count.

But again, these are things you can calculate if you're able to put opponents on ranges (IF you can do it correctly), so it's not really a subjective thing as to which hand is better to push in a given scenario.

[pzhon]

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let's say that the BB will call you with the top 15% of hands according to Pokerstove.
... since you will be called only 15% of the time, the other 85% percent of the time you simply take his BB and whatever antes are out there.


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One of the points I made, in the discussion of "The Myth of Suited Connectors" and here, is that when your opponent calls with his top 15%, you get called less than 15% of the time when you have A7o, and more than 15% of the time when you push with 98o.

Since we were comparing A7o with 98o elsewhere in this thread, I'll analyze those, although it only has a tiny effect on the numebr of combinations, that there are 2 A7s combinations when you have A7o instead of 3 when you have A7s.

I'll use the PokerStove top 15.1% range, which is
77+ (48),
A7s+ (28),
K9s+ (16),
QTs+ (8),
JTs (4),
ATo+ (48),
KTo+ (36),
QJo (12).
That totals 200 out of 1326, or 15.1%.

When you have A7o,
77+ (42),
A7s+ (20),
K9s+ (16),
QTs+ (8),
JTs (4),
ATo+ (36),
KTo+ (36),
QJo (12).
That totals 174 out of 1225, or 14.2%.

When you have 98o,
77+ (42),
A7s+ (26),
K9s+ (15),
QTs+ (8),
JTs (4),
ATo+ (48),
KTo+ (36),
QJo (12).
That is 191 out of 1225, 15.6%.

So, in this case having A7o blocks about 9% of the calls you would get holding 98o.

Let's suppose you open-push from the SB with 10 big blinds against someone who covers you and who (mistakenly) uses this range to call in the BB. As a baseline, I'll use folding, so winning the blinds gains 1.5 BB, and having x% equity after getting called is worth -9.5BB + x% * 20 BB.

A7o is uncalled 85.8% of the time, and has 39.99% equity 14.2% of the time. That averages a gain of 1.07 BB. You get back your small blind and 57% of the big blind. You get knocked out 8.2% of the time when you push.

98o is uncalled 84.4% of the time, and has 32.45% equity 15.6% of the time. That averages a gain of 0.796 BB. You get back your small blind and 30% of the big blind. You get knocked out 10.5% of the time when you push.

Against someone who will fold that often, both hands are clear pushes, but you should much prefer having A7o.

Will this stop people from favoring 98o over A7o? No. Fools will defend to the death something they heard someone say in a bar once or that some celebrity babbled when a mathematician explains why it isn't so. Some people insist JTs is better than AA--look at how many more outs it has--even though AA doesn't need outs, and is about 10 times as profitable.