#11
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Re: JJ river play
[ QUOTE ]
i think river is a b/c but is the turn a clear 3-bet? it feels close to me. [/ QUOTE ] |
#12
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Re: JJ river play
Bet/folding is horrible in theory.At the poker table it is maybe the best option after all.But Iīm not totally convinced.
After 3-betting turn your hand is face up. You have 66-AA and maybe some xdxd hands.If you bet/fold here a thinking villain will Valuebluff raise you all day long.He is getting 12.75:1 putting in the raise if he already intends to call you.And he is getting great odds to raise even if he doesnīt intend to call.Not that I give many villains credit for having the guts or the brain to do it and that often includes myself. But there is also villains that donīt have brains which raise this river for different reasons and accidentally makes a good play. Generally speaking I donīt like bet/folding rivers unless our opponent is really predictable or loose passive. Because if they are we have a player that is stupid enough to call with less than JJ and can at the same time find a relatively safe fold to a raise. By check/calling we are getting value owned but we see a showdown and occassionally we induce a stupid bluff or a light value bet. |
#13
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Re: JJ river play
[ QUOTE ]
Bet/folding is horrible in theory.At the poker table it is maybe the best option after all.But Iīm not totally convinced. After 3-betting turn your hand is face up. You have 66-AA and maybe some xdxd hands.If you bet/fold here a thinking villain will Valuebluff raise you all day long.He is getting 12.75:1 putting in the raise if he already intends to call you.And he is getting great odds to raise even if he doesnīt intend to call.Not that I give many villains credit for having the guts or the brain to do it and that often includes myself. But there is also villains that donīt have brains which raise this river for different reasons and accidentally makes a good play. Generally speaking I donīt like bet/folding rivers unless our opponent is really predictable or loose passive. Because if they are we have a player that is stupid enough to call with less than JJ and can at the same time find a relatively safe fold to a raise. By check/calling we are getting value owned but we see a showdown and occassionally we induce a stupid bluff or a light value bet. [/ QUOTE ] Obviously bet/fold is exploitable. But so is check/call and bet/call and check/fold, if we always do it in this spot. Just because we bet/fold here doesn't mean we have to always bet/fold in this spot. Anyway, I don't think bet/call is bad here at all, and is def. better than check/call here. |
#14
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Re: JJ river play
[ QUOTE ]
Obviously bet/fold is exploitable. But so is check/call and bet/call and check/fold, if we always do it in this spot. [/ QUOTE ] Every action is exploitable.But if villain would play his hand perfectly bet/folding and check/folding is by far the most costly ones. If villain plays perfectly he knows that your range is 66-AA.He knows that youīre going to bet/fold river with all non-set hands.I donīt expect anyone to play perfectly but if he does it is a 5/9th pot mistake. |
#15
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Re: JJ river play
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Obviously bet/fold is exploitable. But so is check/call and bet/call and check/fold, if we always do it in this spot. [/ QUOTE ] Every action is exploitable.But if villain would play his hand perfectly bet/folding and check/folding is by far the most costly ones. If villain plays perfectly he knows that your range is 66-AA.He knows that youīre going to bet/fold river with all non-set hands.I donīt expect anyone to play perfectly but if he does it is a 5/9th pot mistake. [/ QUOTE ] Villain is unknown, presumably so are we. Theres no way he knows that we're going to bet/fold JJ here. Do you really expect an unknown to bet/fold JJ in this spot? |
#16
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Re: JJ river play
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Obviously bet/fold is exploitable. But so is check/call and bet/call and check/fold, if we always do it in this spot. [/ QUOTE ] Every action is exploitable.But if villain would play his hand perfectly bet/folding and check/folding is by far the most costly ones. If villain plays perfectly he knows that your range is 66-AA.He knows that youīre going to bet/fold river with all non-set hands.I donīt expect anyone to play perfectly but if he does it is a 5/9th pot mistake. [/ QUOTE ] Villain is unknown, presumably so are we. Theres no way he knows that we're going to bet/fold JJ here. Do you really expect an unknown to bet/fold JJ in this spot? [/ QUOTE ] As previously stated it is a huge mistake to bet/fold only if villain plays perfectly. But rememeber that you lose 7 BB or something if he plays perfectly and as also already stated many players donīt expect anything since their head is under their arm "Wow an ace Iīm going to bluff him". I have no clue of what villain thinks and thatīs why I would like to make the move that costs the least if he doesnīt think or if he is really sharp. However Iīll admit that Iīm a little bit puzzled now when you told me that we really canīt expect villain to bluffraise this river. It makes your earlier proposal to bet/call seem a little bit strange. |
#17
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Re: JJ river play
Huh? I didn't say villain will never bluffraise the river. I just don't think an unknown will do it often enough to make bet/call the best play.
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#18
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Re: JJ river play
bet call
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#19
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Re: JJ river play
[ QUOTE ]
Huh? I didn't say villain will never bluffraise the river. I just don't think an unknown will do it often enough to make bet/call the best play. [/ QUOTE ] I just pointed out the fact that it is a paradox to think that bet/calling is the best play and at the same time not think that bet/folding is the by far worst play. |
#20
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Re: JJ river play
[ QUOTE ]
i think river is a b/f, as others said. but is the turn a clear 3-bet? it feels close to me. [/ QUOTE ] with no reads, I think it's bad. The guy can easily have AA-QQ here, and all we really beat is a hand like A8s, or two big diamonds. |
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