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Old 11-13-2007, 12:43 PM
pococurante pococurante is offline
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Default Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot?

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The lottery is always -EV, due to taxes.

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And other forms of gambling aren't, because they DON'T pay taxes?

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I didn't say that.

I only meant that when you're 10 million to win and the prize is 11 million, it's still -EV. Some people see only the "omg superrare plus EV lottery" and forget about taxes.
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  #2  
Old 11-17-2007, 11:05 PM
Lottery Larry Lottery Larry is offline
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Default Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot?

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I only meant that when you're 10 million to win and the prize is 11 million, it's still -EV. Some people see only the "omg superrare plus EV lottery" and forget about taxes.

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Eh, semantics. If I end up with $6M after spending a few dollars, I give a flying DUCK about "+EV"
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  #3  
Old 11-19-2007, 05:38 PM
HeroInBlack HeroInBlack is offline
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Default Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I only meant that when you're 10 million to win and the prize is 11 million, it's still -EV. Some people see only the "omg superrare plus EV lottery" and forget about taxes.

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Eh, semantics. If I end up with $6M after spending a few dollars, I give a flying DUCK about "+EV"

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Larry:

The original question was about EV, so I think the point was legitimate and correct.
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  #4  
Old 11-19-2007, 06:53 PM
Lottery Larry Lottery Larry is offline
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Default Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot?

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The original question was about EV, so I think the point was legitimate and correct.

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If you look farther up, you see I actually answered the question (somewhat) with numbers.

As for "legitimate".... I don't think worrying about EV in a multi-state lottery is worth the effort. You don't play the lottery for the EV. You play the lottery for the huge ROI and the low buy-in.

I've yet to here a person say, after winning an 8-figure jackpot post-tax, say "Oh, I know it was a silly -EV bet, I felt really foolish for buying the ticket."
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