50NL AQ tough spot

[thing85]

The flop call is marginal, considering there is really only 1 or 2 turn cards that will make you like your hand more, and a whole bunch that will look scary.

Villain seems really nitty, so a check/raise on the flop is a pretty strong signal. I might still call the flop to see if he shows weakness on the turn or hope for a Q or another A.

When he leads the turn for > 1/2 pot, he has a hand. This isn't a draw putting out a blocking bet. You have to ask yourself, does he bet anything that TP2K can beat? The answer is most likely no. He flat called PF, so this is most likely a 2-pair/set hand, probably 66, 99, or A9s.

If you've been stealing a lot and have a pretty aggro image, villain might (but not often) make this play with AJ. Doesn't happen often enough to warrant a turn call.

By the river, I probably make this call. Let's consider his range to be: 66,99,AKs,AKo,A9s,A6s. Poker stove shows our equity on the river to be:

Board: 9h 6c Ac 7s Qc

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.653% 64.65% 00.00% 343238 0.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 35.347% 35.35% 00.00% 187658 0.00 { 99, 66, AKs, A9s, A6s, AKo }

So, by the river, we're actually ahead of his range, definitely enough to call getting 3 to 1.

Here's how our hand looks on the turn:

Board: 9h 6c Ac 7s

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 06.015% 06.01% 00.00% 29446 0.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 93.985% 93.99% 00.00% 460117 0.00 { 99, 66, AKs, A9s, A6s, AKo }

As you can see, we only have 6% equity on the turn, making a call terrible. Even if you add AJ into his range, our equity is still only 34%, so a call would still be incorrect.

Hope that helped.