#1
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*** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
IND @ SD
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#2
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
official bump since I started these so early this time
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#3
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
Colts win.
SD looked terrible last week. Chargers couldn't even beat KC at home. Yes, that was week 4. Have they improved that much? The running back is a star. The QB is average. This is not the 06 Chargers. |
#4
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
I love Colts -3.5 here. Really love it. Especially after Indy lost to NE this past week. From a MOV perspective, Indy should be about -10 here.
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#5
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
I actually think there is some value in SD ML. Ive always wanted to do a pleaser, and ima make a small pleaser bet with SD and Minn/Cincy. Count it!
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#6
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
OK, this is official now. I put down 1u at Indy -3.5 (-120) to win .83u. I wanted this to be a 2u play, but the extra vig makes me bring it down to 1u. DVOA projects Indy to be 5.5 point favorites in this game, and MOV has them at 8 or so, and that's not factoring in Indy's loss to their bitter rivals. The Colts are too good, and too well-coached to have a letdown, and I expect them to win this game handily.
30-20 Colts. YTD: 0-0-0 +0u |
#7
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
[ QUOTE ]
OK, this is official now. I put down 1u at Indy -3.5 (-120) to win .83u. I wanted this to be a 2u play, but the extra vig makes me bring it down to 1u. DVOA projects Indy to be 5.5 point favorites in this game, and MOV has them at 8 or so, and that's not factoring in Indy's loss to their bitter rivals. The Colts are too good, and too well-coached to have a letdown, and I expect them to win this game handily. 30-20 Colts. YTD: 0-0-0 +0u [/ QUOTE ] Is indy -3 -125 better or worse than -3.5 -120. I guess this just comes down to if they win by exactly 3 greater than 5% of the time? |
#8
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
[ QUOTE ]
Is indy -3 -125 better or worse than -3.5 -120. I guess this just comes down to if they win by exactly 3 greater than 5% of the time? [/ QUOTE ] I could be wrong, but I believe they have to win exactly by 3 greater than 1.01% of the time. -120 = 54.55 BE, whereas -125 = 55.56 BE. I'm pretty sure Indy -3 (-125) is a far better line. |
#9
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
I'm not up on SD defensive injuries, but they are the type of fast, aggressive 3-4 defense that can put pressure on Peyton and cause problems. (remember they beat the Colts a couple years ago). Football Outsiders talk a lot about this.
of course, if Philips and Castillo don't play, forget about it. I think SD actually matches up ok here offensively - what Indy tries to take away isn't nec. what SD tries to do a lot of. anyways, I'll wait to see how the injury report shows. |
#10
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
[ QUOTE ]
Indy -3 (-125) is a far better line. [/ QUOTE ] |
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