#1
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1/2 line check with AK (big draw) against likely set
villain is 22/9/1.3 over 30 hands or so, he should view me as somewhat LAGish, like 30/24/4 as I have gotten some hands lately.
once he bet the turn after raising the flop, I was almost certain that he had a set, but I still have 13 outs against that and I should get paid off if I do hit. Is the river betting size about right? I was going to push if I hit my flush (that's runner runner flush, he wouldn't think it's that likely) or straight. But now the card completes the flush draw on flop, I think pushing might scare him away, am I just thinking too much here and should have pushed allin? Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter BB: $380.10 Hero (UTG): $232.80 MP: $195.45 CO: $77.60 BTN: $507.30 SB: $118 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG) <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, MP calls $8, 4 folds Flop: ($19) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $12</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $24</font>, Hero calls $12 Turn: ($67) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $20</font>, Hero calls $20 River: ($107) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $66</font> |
#2
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Re: 1/2 line check with AK (big draw) against likely set
i think a shove is the best play, i doubt he is folding a set here
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#3
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Re: 1/2 line check with AK (big draw) against likely set
Hero crai on turn!
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#4
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Re: 1/2 line check with AK (big draw) against likely set
I like your line. Now overbet that river if your image is true...
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#5
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Re: 1/2 line check with AK (big draw) against likely set
[ QUOTE ]
Hero crai on turn! [/ QUOTE ] there is no FE on the turn, villain has a set like 90%+ of the time. He's giving me a cheap card, why would I want to put more money in behind when I can safely fold or put more money in (and can reasonably expect to get called) on the river? |
#6
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Re: 1/2 line check with AK (big draw) against likely set
Do you not think he can have a AKc/ATc a lot of the time here? Min raise followed by small bet on the turn is v.weak IMO as a flop min raise with the goods is usually follwed by 3/4 pot or so, no? So he plays his big draw/ pair +draw 'aggressively' (for him- hes a nit remember) by betting 1/3 pot.
I think his range here is at least 35%% AKc/ATc/otheer random clubs and 65~% set. So I think there is definately a lot of value in betting river but I am insta mucking if he raises me given stats. Thoughts? |
#7
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Re: 1/2 line check with AK (big draw) against likely set
I can't remember exactly why I had that read (probably because I saw him play some TP or big draw hands before), but I was very sure that this player is very unlikely to be betting 1 pair or drawing hand like this. FWIW, I was c/f to any decent size (>2/5 pot) bet on the river if river is A or K.
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#8
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Re: 1/2 line check with AK (big draw) against likely set
his dumbass betting pattern looks like he is drawing to me. as played i c/c river.
i like a bet of about $50 on the turn - i think you will take it down a lot here and you have lottsa outs |
#9
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Re: 1/2 line check with AK (big draw) against likely set
[ QUOTE ]
Hero crai on turn! [/ QUOTE ] we had this discussion before about the checkraise on the turn with my AQ last weak remember, we decided that it wasn't the best line to take ?? |
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