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Old 10-25-2007, 09:08 AM
ActionStan ActionStan is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 557
Default Re: NL200 - weak overpair, short stacked, what\'s my plan?

First for all of you saying I need to protect against the draws, I'm not sure that is a huge concern. Mostly this villain is going to have a pocket pair, of which I beat less than half, (44,55,66,88) or a hand like KQ, AJ or sometimes QJ. Most of the time the villain is going to be drawing to 2 or 6 outs. If the villain has a flush draw and overs, he is NEVER folding to my bet and I'm not a favorite. Against any unlikely combo draw I'm not a favorite. Betting just makes the pot bigger with a hand that I don't want to play a big pot with. My hand on this board really isn't all that good against any hand the villain wants to play with.

So here's the thing. Everyone says bet. Bet, bet, bet. In fact, I bet here almost 100% of the time. I reflexively bet.

But, if I'm betting this all the time, then is is almost always correct for the villain to check/raise me with any 2. Or, if rolls are reverses and I'm the villain and I smooth call a MI open raise from the CO or BN, I should raise this flop with any 2. There is very little of my range that I can call a raise with. I need a quality draw or strong overpair. It only gets worse if stacks are deeper. With 50BB and a particularly active villain, it probably isn't so wrong to just stick it in here. With a passive villain it's a pretty straight forward fold. With 100BB, I just don't want to play for stacks. It's very hard for me to call. Betting makes me incredibly vulnerable to any thinking player.

In fact, I do check/raise and 3-bet these sorts of flops all the time with hands that are probably second best with good success. That leads me to believe my flop line isn't very good.

So, no one has convinced me that betting is right or what it accomplishes beyond denying a hand with 6 outs to draw to those outs. Does anyone have an argument that doesn't boil down to "you just need to bet this"?
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