Help settle a debate: this guy's bluff good or bad?

[HeheOkok]

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fwf,

basically, to answer your question, if you don't suck then when you bet the river you either have

1. a monster that is hoping to be raised

or

2. a non-monster that knows this is a terrible board and is making a filthy bet-call.

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hrm..

[sisyphus]

settle a debate! surely you mean settle a bet.

[ImNotSoGood]

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i actually kinda like this, but you didn't tell us what his image is. assuming it's fine, i like it. you probably don't have a straight, and making this call is going to be throwing away money against a tight player without a straight.

calling totally depends on his image. basically, "is he capable of making a play here and what is my image" give you the answer of if you should call.

tc

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This was my first thought. I thought that this would be good w/ a good image, but I completely disagree w/ this under two conditions.

-Hero in this case has at least half-decent hand reading skills.

-Your image is not loose/weak-passive. I think with a loose/weak passive image(especially when it comes to raising from CO, and also calling 3-bets in position), this could be a good play.

If a player has a standard TAG image - Let's assume he's playing 18/17/3 - he is raising A9o+, A8s+, Any two broadway cards suited or offsuit(other than KTo,QTo,and JTo), 65s+, and 44+. Let's assume he's calling the 3-bet with 44-88, 78s-TJs(only hearts and diamonds), AQo, AQs,AQh,AQd, AKh, AKd, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99. The reason I didnt include AQc, AKc,Akd, AA is to factor in the times he is four betting. I've made him 4 bet a pretty narrow range since he would want to balance his game by calling w/ alot more strong hands since he calls with a lot more speculative hands, and does not want to 4 bet lightly. I left out the SC's of two suits because he may fold these SC's anywhere from 30-70% of the time. So his calling range here is about 8%.

Now once you narrow down his range of playing this kind of line, his range gets sooo narrow. He can have 98s sometimes, almost never 87s, 76s, or 56s, and very rarely with 55-77 sometimes he can be floating w/ AK,AQ, and he can take this line and decide to bluff with JJ,QQ,TT, and sometimes he can raise the river for value w/ 99.

So let's assume his river range is 98h,98s(Let's say he slowplays here 50% of the time), 99(Let's say he decides to value shove 33% of the time), 88(let's say he takes this line w/ 88 1/6 times), JJ(Let's say he shoves for value 33% of the time), and always takes this line with 50% of his AQo's and TT. That is 3% of his range.

This is just to say he has a very narrow range on the river since his line is not compatible with a decent amount of his range.

You have to be bluffing a lot on the river for his bluff to be profitable, and you have to be bet/folding a v-bet often too. I doubt this is true, since your river equity against his push range is very good as long as he bluff pushes a reasonable amount of time.

On the other hand a very loose/passive player will not be pushing sets for value on the river, might take this like with hands like 88 and 78s, and sets, and might play a draw with 8x very passively. His push on the river would not be profitable to call with a wide range.