Live 6/12: TT UTG and two ugly overs

[mntndrew]

I think I check/fold this turn out of position. I don't think this was the point of James' original post, but I wonder if a value check/call down might be in order? If UTG+1 gets involved, you can get away from it a lot on the turn, but if he's SUPER LAG, then perhaps allowing him to bluff three streets really widens his range enough that you're ahead.

Given villain's range as stated in OP, I don't think you're good at the river the 2 in 7 times you need to show down.

[jesse8888]

ATC means "any two cards". The big blind's hand is actually even worse than that, as he would have raised his last 2 chips pf with big hands (I hadn't thought of this before...curiously, this probably helps me out substantally) but I'm certain he would not have folded anything for 1 bet pf.

Not getting a clear consensus here really [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Without the suicide all in, I feel I could check/call this guy to show down from the turn on. I guess I'm asking "how much does the suicide all in affect things?" I was trying to do the math at the table but just really couldn't with the button muttering at me constantly while I'm trying to think.

If he really has any two, the chance of him having at least one K or Q on the turn is:

(6/46 + 40/46*6/45) = .246

So I'm probably good 75% of the time against the bb (25% of the time he's going to take half the pot away from me), which for my purposes I'm going to say is just "I win 87.5% of the time against him"

So it seems to me that the suicide all in doesn't change much, as he's pretty unlikely to have me beat for just half the pot. Any other thoughts here?

[TheCount212]

Well, I'm sure I'm in the minority here, but I'd just limp UTG with TT at a loose table. It's just too susceptible to overcards, and my experience has been that loose tables are chock full o' people who like to play any face card...and if my raise isn't going to clear the field, I'm not raising.

With two overs on the flop I am not continuation betting here. I'm c/f'ing, shaking my head and asking myself why I raised, and moving on to the next hand.

[mntndrew]

Count, I'm not clear that the OP indicates an incredibly loose table. You need to raise TT for value. Also, I think the 6/12 will often have several players who will fold overcards with weak kickers; if they fold, you increase your equity, and if they call you get value. Sounds like a winning proposition to me.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'm sure I'm in the minority here, but I'd just limp UTG with TT at a loose table. It's just too susceptible to overcards, and my experience has been that loose tables are chock full o' people who like to play any face card...and if my raise isn't going to clear the field, I'm not raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Count - you need to understand why your raising pre-flop, that is where the error comes from. Your raising because you have a pre-flop equity advantage, you raise because you likely will have the best hand on the vast majority of flops and you want to get as much into the pot as you can NOW before anyone starts folding if they miss the flop. in short you raise because it shows value in the long run, this is how limit poker players eek out a higher win-rate - we make marginally +EV decisions which pay off in the long run. Limit poker is a game of slim margins, if your not pushing these margins then you will find yourself a small winner at best.

Post flop when you hit a board with 2 overcards its time to play poker of course, then you factor in table texture, position, your opponent's range of hands, etc. Often your best decision will be to continue to fire because your hand looks scary to your opponents just like their range of hands look scary to you.