OFFICIAL NCAAF Rank'em thread: October 14, 2007

[iggymcfly]

I agree that the Lloyd Carr hate's a little bit overdone. He obviously is a tremendous recruiter and the Wolverines' overall performance has been as good as can be expected over the last few years.

All the Michigan brass really needs to do is hire a really good offensive coordinator, take Lloyd aside and say "look, this guy's going to run the offense 100%, he's going to call every single play, and if you don't like that you can find a new job".

Of course if Les Miles will leave LSU, I can't really argue that it would be a better result for Michigan. The guy can flat-out coach. I actually think he might be better than Saban.

[smk67]

I don't really know what last years championship game has to do with this year. First, tOSU was labeled as a 'bend but don't break defense' all season by the media. Their main package was a 4-3 base cover 2. The secondary was the weakest spot on the team, with a key injury to Anderson Russel (who has played lights out this year but just got hurt last week). tOSU also lacked depth in the secondary (recall that year tOSU replaced 9 starters of defense) and as such rarely ran blitz plays. Clearly tOSU broke in their last two games. I thought the conclusion was their defense was not as skilled as hyped. I do not find the speed comparison valid, and if you don't believe me go watch UFs defense this year sit back in the cover 2. UF is playing the same D as tOSU last year and they already lost twice! Anyone who thinks UF is a top 10 team this year must not pay close attention to the defense. The cover 2 non-attacking style defense is not nearly the optimal defensive strategy, it is what a lot of coaches rely on when they don't trust their guys.

Anyone who has watched this team this year knows that the secondary starters and backups play the entire game, depth is much better, and this still young but experienced team (10 returning starters, 3 seniors on the 2 deep chart) has improved bigtime on defense. If you watch tOSU games, you will see they play an attacking style defense reminiscent of UFs defense last year. TOSU zone blitzes like crazy, I see their Dlineman (Gholston) in coverage like half the game. I did not see this much last year.

[NozeCandy]

Do people commenting on Michigan's program actually watch the games? Seriously? I'm glad Carr has had some good results by your standards, but if we had a competent OC (Seriously, DeBord is god awful and the only reason he has a job is because he's one of Lloyd's boys) and a staff in general that has seen a mobile QB in a spread before the results would be so much better. You can tell me all you want about our results, but many of Michigan's losses are directly related to coaching. Talent has never been the problem. We know he can recruit. He just cannot get the most out of what he has.

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IMO Michigan fans need to take a hard look at programs like Nebraska and Alabama, and realize being a storied program with great tradition doesn't gaurantee your team will keep cranking out great seasons. Or ask the Chargers how replacing a winning coach because you don't like (fill in the blank) about him works out.

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This is idiotic. We are not asking for better purely because of tradition, we're asking for better because the facets that need the most improvement are the ones that are most easily replaced. Also, using the Chargers as an example is absolutely absurd considering they handled a coaching switch about as poorly as I've ever seen.

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I agree that the Lloyd Carr hate's a little bit overdone. He obviously is a tremendous recruiter and the Wolverines' overall performance has been as good as can be expected over the last few years.

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No, overall performance has not been as good as can be expected. Watch the games.

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All the Michigan brass really needs to do is hire a really good offensive coordinator, take Lloyd aside and say "look, this guy's going to run the offense 100%, he's going to call every single play, and if you don't like that you can find a new job".

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Lloyd is probably going to leave anyway, but this is still wrong. The culture of arrogance, not preparing well for inferior opponents, and playing "Michigan Football" no matter the cost starts with him, and it needs to end.

[FlyWf]

Semtex- It was a good idea not to mention Wisconsin beating Auburn and Penn State beating Tennessee in their respective bowl games when your theory is that the SEC outclasses the Big Ten significantly.

It's rather clear that you don't follow college football outside of USC, maybe you shouldn't try to speak with authority about [censored] you don't know?

[TomCollins]

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Semtex- It was a good idea not to mention Wisconsin beating Auburn and Penn State beating Tennessee in their respective bowl games when your theory is that the SEC outclasses the Big Ten significantly.

It's rather clear that you don't follow college football outside of USC, maybe you shouldn't try to speak with authority about [censored] you don't know?

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I'm convinced he doesn't know anything about USC football either, claiming they are good after getting beat by an awful Stanford team and nearly getting beaten by an awful Arizona team.

[teamdonkey]

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No, overall performance has not been as good as can be expected. Watch the games.

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name 5 programs with more success over his tenure. Please show things like records or conference championships to back yourself up.

demanding he be fired for the team's overall performance when it's been as good as any other team in the country is beyond retarded.

[Arnold_O]

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Specific failings? You think that was a fluke? You think that team was going to be even close to USC, Florida, Cal, or LSU? So Michigan getting worked by USC was also a fluke? That Texas team was one VY knee injury away from completely self-destructing. You put any other quarterback on that team, including Leinart, and had Booty start for USC they would have won. So somehow if Texas beats USC in a nailbiter I cannot argue that calling Texas better is being results oriented, while you can argue calling tOSU wildly overrated for letting Michigan run up 39 and then Florida 41 in a blowout is results oriented garbage? Face it, they had no defense, it just looked that way because they played a bunch of terrible teams. I also guarantee tOSU gets destroyed if they play an SEC or Pac10 team in the NCF

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homeboy, there was a reason OSU was a 7 1/2 pt favorite against florida last year -- cause they were better.

osu's best player got hurt on the 1st play of the game.

osu's monster left tackle had trouble walking but played the whole game and that's where most of florida's pressure came from. troy smith couldn't do anything because of that.

--and tressel admitted to making mistakes and not making the corrections. he screwed up.

it also hurt bigtime having troy smith parading all over the country eating big dinner after big dinner in celebration of his heismann. after the game he blew off the loss as no big deal. once a street thug always a street thug.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Based purely on what the teams have achieved on the field thus far


1. South Florida
2. Boston College
3. Ohio State
4. Arizona State
5. LSU
6. Oklahoma
7. Kansas
8. Cal
9. Oregon
10. South Carolina

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You think Cal has achieved more on the field than Oregon thus far? They have a MUCH worse single score home loss...

Granted Cal's best win (@Oregon by 7) is more impressive than Oregon's best win (@Michigan by 32), but a 14 point home win vs Tennessee is their second best win, and their other wins are Arizona and LA Tech at home, and a 6 point squeaker at Colorado State. I think Oregon's other wins (Houston, Fresno and WSU at home by 21, 31, and 46, and a 24 point road win @Stanford) are collectively more impressive, given the consistent margins. I'd consider Oregon's resume better right now. Mostly because of a much more forgivable loss.

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Clearly, that is the issue even in a results oriented ranking
--how to compare quality of losses v quality of wins

I do think Cal's wins are much more impressive than Oregon's
enough so that I give them the edge despite the worse loss

oh yeah, Colorado St wasn't a squeker...late onside kick and points for CSU made it appear closer than it played... it was also on the road in a let down situation


I'm not sure I'm right, but it's what I got to go with right now

I think a good methodology would be to see what record the 'average' top10 team would have as a record v the schedule played--basically, estimate spreads and ML pcts for a top10 team v that schedule and see whom has outplayed it the most...it might be within tenths of a game

[iggymcfly]

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No, overall performance has not been as good as can be expected. Watch the games.


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Did you completely miss my point? I said that Michigan clearly had some deficiencies on their coaching staff which was obvious from watching the games. That was the whole point about bringing in someone new to run the offense. However, overall performance is determined by things like wins and losses.

Over Lloyd Carr's career, he's 113-36 (75.6%) with a national title. For comparison, Joe Paterno's 74.8% over the course of his career and I don't think anyone would complain about his overall results with the Penn State program.

If you want to look at more recent results, Michigan is 10-3, 10-3, 9-3, 7-6, and 11-2 over the last five years with 3 trips to the Rose Bowl. Not exactly a program in disarray. The point is that the Michigan program's not in a place where it needs a total overhaul. There are a couple minor problems (see offensive coordinator) that need to be fixed but throwing away everything and start from scratch would be silly, if not dangerous.

[NozeCandy]

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No, overall performance has not been as good as can be expected. Watch the games.

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name 5 programs with more success over his tenure. Please show things like records or conference championships to back yourself up.

demanding he be fired for the team's overall performance when it's been as good as any other team in the country is beyond retarded.

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Whoopdy doo, he's outclassed a weak Big 10 the last few years by playing straight up Michigan Football while losing to OSU (and usually choking away another game) and any other team that actually evolves with the times in any big game. I'm not saying he didn't used to be good. I'm not saying he can't recruit. I'm saying he needs to evolve, and he isn't. Michigan has not been relevant in a national sense in a long time before last year (and that proved to be a fraud). 3 of his Big 10 titles have been shared and the lack of a conference championship game undoubtedly inflates that total. His game day acumen leaves an incredible amount to be desired. Michigan wins almost in spite of itself these days. The game has evolved incredibly the last few years, and we have not evolved with it.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2947988

There's a link showing stats from 1997 to 2006. This will drop off immensely once 1997 is off the 10 year range. Aside from general history, 1997 is not relevant anymore.

MT2R, can I get some help here? You know, from someone who actually knows something about the program?