Huge Value On THE TRIBE

[Thremp]

WTF is a piece? Is that like a "bet" or "position"? You do realize you can calc simultaneous Kelly stakes?

Whoa. Earth shattering.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF is a piece? Is that like a "bet" or "position"? You do realize you can calc simultaneous Kelly stakes?

Whoa. Earth shattering.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes its a bet.

goodnight moron.

[thing85]

This was the best bedtime story ever. Do we get an intermission before act II?

[Michael C.]

[ QUOTE ]
ok i have an issue here.

i mis ran my numbers. basically i had a typo which had beckett not as strong as he should have been.

my FAIR NON JUICED line is boston -127 for the series. so even though i made a mistake, i wasn't actually wrong as -127 is closer to PK than -160 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] when you add a nickel juice though it isn't....you got me on a technicality.

regardless, there is vale on these lines being offered on CLE.

these are based on non juiced lines of:

bos -132
bos -118
bos -112
cle -122
cle PK
bos -118
bos -129

[/ QUOTE ]

Boston throwing Beckett in game 4 is far more likely than Cleveland throwing Sabathia, although I think the Tribe would do it if they were down 2-1 or 3-0. It doesn't seem like you have that possibility figured in your odds at all. If it were Beckett-Byrd, Boston would be a huge favorite there (as would Cleveland if it were Sabathia/Wakefield, but that's less likely). Throwing in all the possibilities, I don't think Cleveland -122 is a good line. This could mean Cleveland is slightly more of a favorite in game 5, of course, but either way, I think those lines, besides being off to some extent anyway, are unfairly weighted against Boston since you don't have that figured in at all, and that's pretty big. Personally I think Boston -150 is closer to the real line than Boston -127 or pick. Cleveland would still be the value play, but not by very much.

[rja87]

[ QUOTE ]
This thread is so bad.


Yankees ~ BoSox >>> Indian > Angels


Bosox are significantly better than Indians. Please anyone who wants to give a Pap/Oka v Perez/Betan analysis since 1) It sucks 2) You live in fantasy land

rja,

You're terrible at this. Like your analysis doesn't have anything correct in it. From premises to conclusions. Atleast most people luck sack their way into one or the other. You manage to whiff on all. I will break it down.

1) Yankees being overrated: No. Best team in baseballs going forward.
2) Anyone else being a huge fave: They'd be a slightly bigger fave to the Angels and likely a shade ahead of Yanks due to some HFA.
3) have to win all 4 starts out of Sabathia/Carmona: Since there isn't at worst a 30% chance of Byrd or some other schmuck luck sacking their way into a win. Not to mention those two pitchers could see 5 starts between them...

[/ QUOTE ]

The Yankees were definitely overrated..I'm only referring to this season. They have an old rotation and not much of a bullpen outside of Joba/Rivera. Pitching matters much more than offense.
As for the second point, you misunderstood what I said. I meant, if the Indians had played a team that wasn't the Yankees, they wouldn't seem like such a threat to most people regardless of whether the games played out the same way.
Last point, yeah there's a chance they win one of the other games..but the way the matchups will be it's unlikely. Boston has 4 solid starters, DiceK and Wakefield are much better than Westbrook/Byrd/whoever. I didn't really consider Sabathia/Carmona having 5 starts between them I didn't think that was a common occurrence maybe I'm wrong.

[Caldarooni]

[ QUOTE ]
I like these flame fests

there is so much info in it for the noobie sports bettor to obtain

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally agree. Holy [censored] did this turn into a great thread!

[Trencherman]

[ QUOTE ]
I like these flame fests

there is so much info in it for the noobie sports bettor to obtain

[/ QUOTE ]

Whenever Thremp goes on and on about how simple and obvious sports betting topics such as multiple simultaneous Kelly betting are, I like to remember this thread from June 2006 where Thremp wrestles with the great mystery of 3-way betting lines. He asks:

[ QUOTE ]
How do you arb three line events like soccer where theres moneyline for each and draw line... It seems theres money but it takes forver for me to do and I'm shaky on it too [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
And when a solution is offered, he can only say:

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, my dork translator is totally busted. I don't even know how to convert moneyline to %s.

[/ QUOTE ]
If only the Thremp of today had been around to kindly tell the Thremp of last year just how easy and obvious it all should be to him...

[MicroBob]

definitely learning something from this thread.
definitely some improvement in tone and politeness could be warranted.

Kind of funny to be learning so much from:

"You Moron....If you don't understand how this works then you are actually stupider than I thought. Guess I'll have to do the damn math for you....."

(insert valuable content here)

"See?!?! Do you get it now you total idiot noob who doesn't know what the hell he's doing and must be the worst sports-bettor in the universe?!?! Hope this helped you figure it out you super-squarest of the squares!"

[Thremp]

Trencher,

Word. Its fun to see how we all progress along. As an aside I think the average poster is much more astute now than in the past. I don't think I ever randomly wandered into threads being posted about kelly sizing for teasers or a hedging NCAA teaser legs to get a synthetic one team teaser.

[MyTurn2Raise]

in other words, Thremp has a mancrush on Ganchrow and trixtrix