Deep KK faces massive overbet flop push...

[martijn]

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FWIW I've asked 2 mid/high stakes player and both think its relative easy fold.

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I have no clue who you know, but im staying w/ tjbentham and born2dogbaby right now (both big winning 5/10 and 10/20 players) and both want to know how this is anything but ''mouse hovering over the call button instacall'

So yeah, don't fold here kids if you like money!

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uhm maybe you know 1 of them, thecleaner11 from stars.


but even though I say fold, I think its pretty close.

[Proofrock]

A few thoughts after just skimming this thread.

(1) It would really be helpful to have a better read than "55/12/2.6" -- I know you don't always have a better read, but is this over a large sample, a small sample, is this filtered for 3-handed play (b/c obv 55/12 3-handed is different than 55/12 9-handed), etc. These stats certainly mean *something*, but are not enough to help with the postflop much except that to say that this guy likes to see flops. It could be "see flop with any two to flop two-pair+" or "see flop with any two to outplay postflop." This is pretty crucial when it comes to narrowing Villain's range meaningfully.

(2) 200BB is only important in how it affects Villain's range and the pot odds being offered. Even against bad players, their c/shove overbet range is going to be tighter the bigger the stacks are. I'd say you'll see AJ,JJ+,99,44,J9,94, and J4 a lot more often than T8,KQ, or 66. Don't get me wrong -- it may not be often enough to turn this into a fold, but it needs to be factored in.

(3) With regards to "lol at waiting for a better spot in a cash game," there is actually some argument for this given the capped buy-in. The only reason to pass up a +EV spot is if it will allow you to take an even more +EV spot later on *that you would otherwise miss out on.* If you're taking a close gamble with 2 buy-ins, losing also means you have half the stack for a second encounter -- vs. a Villain who will stack off light, losing this hand comes at the expense of future EV.

With regards to the hand, assuming I had no read, I would have to flip a coin here, but given how deep we are I'd probably fold because really deep-stack c/shoves from bad players who are loose and limp or call 80% of the hands they play preflop are more often big hands than complete air -- enough that I think making this call is pretty close to neutral EV and I want to keep my stack as deep as possible vs. this player.

[ReptileHouse]

These situations are pretty close against against someone with out a more detailed read than "loose donk with post-flop aggro tendencies." For example,

Board: Jc 9h 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.515% 46.45% 01.06% 129681 2970.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.485% 51.42% 01.06% 143559 2970.00 { JJ+, 99, 44, AJs, QTs, J9s, AJo, J9o }

We're getting slightly better than that price to call. It's very, very close though. Tweak the range a bit and it can be pretty clear one way or the other. E.g., if he does this as a pure bluff very often at all, it becomes a clear call. OTOH, if he rarely does it with a one pair hand that's not an overpair, it becomes a clear fold.

When I see a bet like this from a donk, I tend to think, "strong, but vulnerable, hand." Two pair, especially bottom two, overpairs, etc.. On this board, the only reasonable two pair is J9. I would strongly weight villain's range towards J9 and QQ. Even overagrro donks don't often play sets like this on dry boards.

This villain seems aggro enough postflop that I can't see a call being horribly wrong. If it's incorrect, it's not by much.

That said, my tendency is to fold. I probably rival A5 in being a station (and not in a good way, he's a better handreader than I am by far), but when I have a very, very close decision like this, I tend to err on the side of folding. I'll admit my reason isn't the best one. It's mostly psychological. If I stack off here by getting the money in bad, it's going to tilt me and I'm likely to play badly for the next 30 minutes or so. I suppose you could say that I'm quantifying my tilt as additional -EV as part of deciding whether to call.

[JDLade]

I think its a marginally easy fold...
he almost certainly has a monster or air, I don't see him doing this with TPTK...
If hes doing this with a good hand and you make a bad call, then he just made a sweet play,
if hes doing this with complete air then he'll probably do it later too... so... seems like you should wait for a better spot, no?
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Vacant]

we've got a thread split pretty much 50/50 on whether to call or fold.

Most of the call side are saying "insta call", most of the fold side are being more realistic in what a close hard decision it is.

If thats all the information i was given, I would choose fold.

[Spete]

Phil Ivey didn't seem to think this is such an easy decision (HSP season 3, was it?). He did fold, though. Of course, he didn't view his villain as a donkey, but why should we?

[Jay Riall]

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Phil Ivey didn't seem to think this is such an easy decision (HSP season 3, was it?). He did fold, though. Of course, he didn't view his villain as a donkey, but why should we?

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Rofl I knew this was going to come up at some point. Totally different its almost laughable you compare the two and iirc there was like $300k stacks in that hand (500bb).

[Acaccini]

personally i would fold and find a better spot to get it all in, in a 400bb pot you do not want to be drawing to 2 outs.

[Spete]

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Rofl I knew this was going to come up at some point. Totally different its almost laughable you compare the two and iirc there was like $300k stacks in that hand (500bb).

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Right, Phil did have 300k in front of him. Still, on the flop, Booth laid Phil 1.3:1, whereas Villain laid OP 1.2:1.

[hakeem]

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(1) It would really be helpful to have a better read than "55/12/2.6" -- I know you don't always have a better read, but is this over a large sample, a small sample, is this filtered for 3-handed play (b/c obv 55/12 3-handed is different than 55/12 9-handed), etc. These stats certainly mean *something*, but are not enough to help with the postflop much except that to say that this guy likes to see flops. It could be "see flop with any two to flop two-pair+" or "see flop with any two to outplay postflop." This is pretty crucial when it comes to narrowing Villain's range meaningfully.

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Best paragraph in the thread. A 55/12 player who seems like a maniac does not necessarily put his stack in for ~200BB postflop.

I'd have a very tough time calling this, and I'm not afraid of making calls like this at all, without having seen some kind of example of him shoving his stack in light postflop.