#1
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how often will I end up up pos. In this staking agreement?
I'm taking 45 percent of my friends action in the wsoop in the200, 215 rebuy, 500 and1000 Holden events for 50 percent of the buyins. I realize that the probability he does cash is 1- .9 to the fourth but that doesnt give the answer to what im looking for obv.
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#2
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Re: how often will I end up up pos. In this staking agreement?
It depends on what you think his average profit will be if the buy-in is $x .
If the total buy-in is x , of which you will contribute $x/2 , then you need to assure yourself that his average profit will be : average profit*0.45>= x/2 average profit = 10/9*x . So if the buy-in is $215 , then you need to assure yourself that his average profit will be 215*10/9 = 238.88 . Is your friend that good ? |
#3
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Re: how often will I end up up pos. In this staking agreement?
I think it's a pretty raw deal for you, unless your partner is a spectacularly good player. In one sense you are "just doing 10% worse than he is", but in another sense, you are a lot more likely to lose and less likely to win than he is. To keep the numbers easy, let's pretend for the moment that you're backing him in $11 10-seat SnGs. Suppose your friend is finishing in each place 10% of the time - that is, breaking even on the prize pool but losing money to the rake. If he plays 10 tourneys, you and he pay $110 ($55 each) in entries. He collects a total of $100 in prizes. He breaks even, pocketing $55, and you lose $10. If your friend does 10% better than that - ITM 33% instead of 30% of the time - he will collect on average $110, which in the usual sense makes him a "break-even player" -- but will, under your arrangement, result in him making a $5.50 profit and you taking a $5.50 loss. He has to collect on average $122.22 before your expected share of the winnings comes to $55 (and he pockets ALL the profit.) There are players good enough to average $130 or $140 back on $11 SnGs. Suppose your friend is such a player, and you expect to split $140 - $77 to him, $63 to you. Your friend made $22, you made $8. Are you satisfied with a deal that will result in your friend making three times as much money as you do in the long run? Were you aware that that "10% difference" you agreed to was, in effect, an agreement to split profits 75-25-ish? I think the deal you MEANT to offer your friend was "I will cover 50% of your losses and take 45% of your profits" - which is a LOT different from covering 50% of his entry fees and taking 45% of his winnings. |
#4
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Re: how often will I end up up pos. In this staking agreement?
If he cashes for 430 on the first $215 tournament, I get .45*430.
So not just the profits. Its not a bad deal at all... If he has an ROI of 10%(?) i'll break even. |
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