#11
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Re: Wtf.. I have no idea how to play sats..
u realize this is a turbo right?
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#12
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Re: Wtf.. I have no idea how to play sats..
[ QUOTE ]
u realize this is a turbo right? [/ QUOTE ] you realize this is a turbo satellite right? |
#13
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Re: Wtf.. I have no idea how to play sats..
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] u realize this is a turbo right? [/ QUOTE ] you realize this is a turbo satellite right? [/ QUOTE ] |
#14
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Re: Wtf.. I have no idea how to play sats..
DOESN'T ANYONE REALIZE THAT THIS IS A SATELLITE?!
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#15
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Re: Wtf.. I have no idea how to play sats..
folding nits what is he losing to?
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#16
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Re: Wtf.. I have no idea how to play sats..
[ QUOTE ]
folding nits what is he losing to? [/ QUOTE ] does the anthology have topics about satellites? if so, read them |
#17
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Re: Wtf.. I have no idea how to play sats..
lol
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#18
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Re: Wtf.. I have no idea how to play sats..
[ QUOTE ]
folding nits what is he losing to? [/ QUOTE ] the shove is very obviously +cev, but it's also (less obviously) -$ev. Someone else may care to elaborate on the math. I'm more interested what range (if any) we can shove here. I'm guessing KK+. |
#19
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Re: Wtf.. I have no idea how to play sats..
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] folding nits what is he losing to? [/ QUOTE ] Someone else may care to elaborate on the math. [/ QUOTE ] My vote is for Stumpy. He's good at maths. |
#20
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Re: Wtf.. I have no idea how to play sats..
[ QUOTE ]
folding nits what is he losing to? [/ QUOTE ] It's not about what he is losing to. It is about what he could lose to. Say hypothetically that if he folds this hand right now he is 95% to get a seat. If he shoves, his opponents are certainly not drawing dead. But, let's say he is 75% to win the pot if he shoves. If he shoves and wins, he gets a seat 100% of the time. When he shoves and loses, his chances of getting a seat drop to ~40%. Again this is hypothetical. So 75% of the time, he increases his $EV from $204.25 (.95 * $215) to $215. A gain of $10.75. 25% of the time he decreases his $EV from $204.25 (.95 * $215) to $86 (.40 * $215), a loss of $129. Now to complete the math: (.75 * $10.75) + (.25 * -$128) = $8.06 + -$32.25 ~= -$24.19. Thus, shoving here costs the OP $24.19 everytime he does so, making a +cEV play -$EV. This example is hypothetical to demonstrate why making a +cEV play in a Sat can be hugely -$EV. An even better one can be done in this case by 1) making better estimates of OP's chances of winning a seat if he folds 2) making estimates of his opponents' hand ranges 3) running the numbers in pokerstove and 4) making a better estimate of his chances of winning a seat if he loses. |
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