#1
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NL200: turn checkraise all in with middle pair + FD against donk
5-handed, NL200.
Hero is BB with $200 and K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG is donkish 57/23/4.75 with $161. Only 11% went to SD but sample of 47 hands only. CO is a loose passive fish. UTG raises to $4, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero calls $2. Flop J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($13) Hero checks, UTG bets $13, CO folds, hero calls $13. Turn 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($39) Hero checks, UTG bets $28, Hero shoves (UTG has $116 behind), UTG... I'm mostly looking to see if my thought process doesn't show major leaks as I find myself doing these semi-bluff/semi-value shoves often. Preflop I think a call is the only option. On the flop I felt I may as well keep the pot small and not raise as he calls me with most draws and I don't feel like firing the turn and check-calling river when he does. On the turn he fires again and I've picked up more outs. I feel like I have some FE, may have the best hand some of the time that I would probably fold on the river if he fires again, and have enough outs against his range to cover up the rest for this high-variance move to be profitable. That's what I thought last night. Today I think I was on tilt and just muttered "godddammit I'm going arr in I can lose a buyin" but cannot really think of a better line. |
#2
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Re: NL200: turn checkraise all in with middle pair + FD against donk
i dont like this.
you have 9 spades, and only 2 9s and 2 ks (i dont think you can include clubs here) that may or may not win it, so that's 13/46. If you get a fold or a call and you hit then good luck to you but there are better spots imo. if you have a pair and two spades on the flop then it's a different answer of course. |
#3
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Re: NL200: turn checkraise all in with middle pair + FD against donk
PF: Definetly a call, getting 6:1 with a suited king, but be wary as you mary very well be dominated
Flop: I have no problem c/f'ing this flop. You have middle pair, OOP against two opponents on a draw heavy board. If your ahead, its not by much, and very often you are destroyed by his range. Turn: As played, I would call here, but not like it. You have very little FE against such a donkish opponent and said donkish opponent will likely pay you off if you hit on the river. Turn is a [censored] spot, but easily avoided by folding the flop. |
#4
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Re: NL200: turn checkraise all in with middle pair + FD against donk
Just a few pokerstoves against sample hands on the turn:
29% against A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 18% against JJ 70% against A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 81% against T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 31% against QQ 96% against 66 |
#5
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Re: NL200: turn checkraise all in with middle pair + FD against donk
He raises 23% of his hands preflop. c/f flop seems super weak.
Edit (though by stoving I'm not ahead by that much): Board: Js 2c 9c equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 56.383% 55.16% 01.22% 129608 2868.50 { Ks9s } Hand 1: 43.617% 42.40% 01.22% 99615 2868.50 { 66+, A3s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo } Assuming he continues firing with all hands (unreasonable) by the turn: Board: Js 2c 9c 5s equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 67.281% 66.38% 00.90% 6903 93.33 { Ks9s } Hand 1: 32.719% 31.82% 00.90% 3309 93.33 { 66+, A3s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo } That assumes he's positionally unaware and that he'd pick a sane 23% range (probably I do better against the actual range he picks). |
#6
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Re: NL200: turn checkraise all in with middle pair + FD against donk
This a clear case of implied odds, as he has both intiative and position on the turn. You will often be folding the best hand and paying him off with worse. Against a donk like this, you will be able to get your money in much much better down the line.
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#7
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Re: NL200: turn checkraise all in with middle pair + FD against donk
to be honest i think you are overestimating his range. i think you are much more likely to see 22, 99, J9, and AJ, especially given his dumb min raise preflop and the subsequent action. A lot of donks would play these hands this way. You may get him to fold a pair here but he also might not believe you and call and then you need to hit...
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#8
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Re: NL200: turn checkraise all in with middle pair + FD against donk
what site do you play at and what is your handle? lol [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#9
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Re: NL200: turn checkraise all in with middle pair + FD against donk
[ QUOTE ]
Against a donk like this, you will be able to get your money in much much better down the line. [/ QUOTE ]Lol I did not have much time, I needed to get unstuck from -$630 downswing asap [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#10
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Re: NL200: turn checkraise all in with middle pair + FD against donk
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Against a donk like this, you will be able to get your money in much much better down the line. [/ QUOTE ]Lol I did not have much time, I needed to get unstuck from -$630 downswing asap [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] in that case wp sir! |
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