Is there really any value in calling here?

[godofPOPOV]

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Is calling for set value here +EV?

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There is $19.75 in the pot. Your opponent has has $27.55 left. So you are calling $4.75 to win 47.30.

You will miss 89% of the time. So 89 times you lose $4.75 for $422.75.

You will hit 11% of the time, but still lose occasionally to a bigger set or some other odd suckout. 11 * 47.30 = $520.00 - the times you lose. When you lose, you lose your stack. Looks coin-flippish/neutral EV.

Example flops and your equity...

Board: Ac 9d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.716% 78.72% 00.00% 49095 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 21.284% 21.28% 00.00% 13275 0.00 { JJ+ }


Board: 2d 7c 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 91.010% 91.01% 00.00% 64872 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 08.990% 08.99% 00.00% 6408 0.00 { JJ+ }


Board: Ac Kc 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.965% 60.97% 00.00% 32592 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 39.035% 39.03% 00.00% 20868 0.00 { JJ+ }


I am at work so I don't have time for any more math here, but it looks so close, I'd probably just fold and wait for a better spot. I don't like flipping.

I'd rather outplay the BB by stealing his loose calls by c-betting flops and by the fact that his raises turn his cards face up allowing you to play optimally against him (so far, given his small sample size). You will do better to set mine when he raises pre-flop and you just call with your PP (and maybe an additional caller or two).

If he's already played half his hands I'm guessing you are going to see more of it and he's going to be giving away his dough and going too far when he does finally get around to raising.

Disclaimer: Math probably not perfect but reasonable.

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for the sake of understanding the EV calculations and the math,
if you won 100% of the time you hit your set, so 11% of the time you won his stack 100% of the time - it would be very EV+ right?