#1
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AK laydown preflop...long run +ev?
First time positng hand history so hang in there with me.
FULL RING $1/2 nl $100 max buy UTG-$240 MP-$120 HERO-$160 Ive played about 40 hands with UTG and he's playing a VERY bad LAG style and getting lucky. Ive played about 10 hands with MP and he's decent TAG. UTG opens for $10. MP thinks for a minute and reraises to $30. I get a good read that MP is strong and can already see that UTG is def going to call. Im to the immediate left of MP and look down at AKo. Look at the dealer...sigh...and muck. Action folds around to UTG who instacalls. Flop comes 529 rainbow. UTG hollywoods for a minute and checks. MP thinks for a sec and pushes. UTG instacalls. MP shows QQ and MP shows 55 for the set. Turn comes 10 and river is a K. Is this the right laydown in the longrun. Do you guys think I should have pushed preflop to isolate MP. What is the long term +ev on this situation. Thanks for the input. |
#2
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Re: AK laydown preflop...long run +ev?
Folding isn't terrible...but shoving isn't bad either. You're obviously way ahead of the LAG's range, and if the TAG is decent he will probably be re-popping him w/ fairly wide range as well. W/ these stacks I vote for shove.
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#3
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Re: AK laydown preflop...long run +ev?
folding is ev = 0
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#4
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Re: AK laydown preflop...long run +ev?
I was kind of kicking myself for not pushing. The MP is def calling there if I do which we're off to the races. I also have a small feeling that even if I did push that the lagtard UTG might just have called off with the 55 due to pot size and with him having us covered. Just wondering if Im leaving alot on the table in long run by not pushing here. Thanks again for input guys.
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#5
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Re: AK laydown preflop...long run +ev?
shoving is the best play, but not by far, and if you are trying to curtail live variance, i like a fold here.
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#6
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Re: AK laydown preflop...long run +ev?
Thats what I was thinking as far as variance. I knew the edge I may have had was pretty thin.
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#7
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Re: AK laydown preflop...long run +ev?
Given descriptions sounds like MP could be isolating UTG w/ a pretty wide range here I like to RR and isolate here.
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#8
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Re: AK laydown preflop...long run +ev?
I think AK is a good hand to lay down in this position where you have a raise and reraise from a tight preflop player. You probably have little fold equity if you re-reraise. And at best you flipping vs TT-QQ.
Edit: I just noticed how short your stack and MP's stack are. I think pushing preflop is good given the stack sizes and the fact that MP might be reraising the LAG with less than just premium pairs. So, as an aside, I think pushing is about as good as folding. I think I'd rather fold, but pushing is OK too. Calling would be just terrible. |
#9
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Re: AK laydown preflop...long run +ev?
I too was thinking the MP tag could have a wide range here, but the read forced the laydown. Yea..I think calling here would have been a serious mistake.
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#10
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Re: AK laydown preflop...long run +ev?
UTG had the set by the way. Just realized I had MP show both hands.
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