Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko

[suzzer99]

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Slim, are you doing ICM or just cEV?

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I am using the ICM to calculate prize pool equities.

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So what is the breakeven (for Khan) starting range for Kerchinko (or whatever) assuming Rehme calls TT+, AK? And how does that range shift if we add $10 mil to first?

[THAY3R]

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If Rahme really had AQ, how did he stop the blood from spurting out of his eyes?

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He was ridiculously tight for most of the FT. He probably would have folded AK here too.

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Is it correct to fold AQ or AK there? Not berating his play, just curious to what you guys think.

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I definitely would have folded AQ there
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I'd probably fold AK here.

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lol

[Slim Pickens]

I'm going to use these hand ranges:
Kravchenko: {22+,A2s+,KTs+,QJs,A3o+,KJo+}
Khan: {22+,A8s+,KJs+,ATo+,KQo}
Rahme: AQo

With those, main pot equities are (ignoring splits):
Kravchenko: 0.28603
Khan: 0.37661
Rahme: 0.33736

The side pot is a little harder because the only situation we care about is when Kravchenko wins the main. It means AQo probably missed and I think is going to make Khan's range fare a little better on those boards against AQo, but for now I'll just assume they split 50/50.

EV_call=0.33736(4486.323)+0.37661(2253.401)+0.2860 3(0.5*3733.200+0.5*2094.028)
=3195.628

EV_fold=0.56062(3289.466)+0.43938(3237.937)=3266.8 25

Mucking AQo wins by about $71,000.

[GotQuads]

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I'm going to use these hand ranges:
Kravchenko: {22+,A2s+,KTs+,QJs,A3o+,KJo+}
Khan: {22+,A8s+,KJs+,ATo+,KQo}
Rahme: AQo

With those, main pot equities are (ignoring splits):
Kravchenko: 0.28603
Khan: 0.37661
Rahme: 0.33736

The side pot is a little harder because the only situation we care about is when Kravchenko wins the main. It means AQo probably missed and I think is going to make Khan's range fare a little better on those boards against AQo, but for now I'll just assume they split 50/50.

EV_call=0.33736(4486.323)+0.37661(2253.401)+0.2860 3(0.5*3733.200+0.5*2094.028)
=3195.628

EV_fold=0.56062(3289.466)+0.43938(3237.937)=3266.8 25

Mucking AQo wins by about $71,000.

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I looked at the numbers you posted earlier, it seems close with AQ but AK looks like a clear call.

Whether Khans range includes the smallest pairs is probably of minor relevance with AK/AQ.

Good post Slim

[candyman718]

I know this is not a sophisticated mathematical point, but it seems like a lot of the above posts are putting your opponent on a hand (or a range) that would justify a call. What have you witnessed from the initial raiser that would indicate that he would go in so lightly?

BTW, in general I hate the SB's play here with anything less than 66.

[ZBTHorton]

I said this once in the thread, and nobody listened.

One thing none of you are factoring in, is how few hands they are playing per hour, and it's impact on the players stacks/m's/whatever.

They played 14 hands per hour. This is kind of like playing a turbo online. RainKhan doesn't have the liberty of waiting around for "more +cEV" situations. This is +cEV. +$EV. And +EV in general.

This push is so amazingly standard it's not even funny. The only discussion I can see from this hand is Rahme's fold...but given how tight RainKhan had been playing, I think his fold is okay.

[MyTurn2Raise]

i find myself in agreement with ZBTHorton over and over on this final table

I'm happy to be in his camp

[GotQuads]

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I said this once in the thread, and nobody listened.

One thing none of you are factoring in, is how few hands they are playing per hour, and it's impact on the players stacks/m's/whatever.

They played 14 hands per hour. This is kind of like playing a turbo online. RainKhan doesn't have the liberty of waiting around for "more +cEV" situations. This is +cEV. +$EV. And +EV in general.

This push is so amazingly standard it's not even funny. The only discussion I can see from this hand is Rahme's fold...but given how tight RainKhan had been playing, I think his fold is okay.

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What you're saying doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

Even in a turbo structure you cannot win money that is not in the pot yet. If you have a large M you have a large M. Only if the blinds are about to double up next hand and you're UTG there's some resemblance of logic to what you're saying. This was not the case and Khan was in the SB.

[Jasper109]

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I said this once in the thread, and nobody listened.

One thing none of you are factoring in, is how few hands they are playing per hour, and it's impact on the players stacks/m's/whatever.

They played 14 hands per hour. This is kind of like playing a turbo online. RainKhan doesn't have the liberty of waiting around for "more +cEV" situations. This is +cEV. +$EV. And +EV in general.

This push is so amazingly standard it's not even funny. The only discussion I can see from this hand is Rahme's fold...but given how tight RainKhan had been playing, I think his fold is okay.

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What you're saying doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

Even in a turbo structure you cannot win money that is not in the pot yet. If you have a large M you have a large M. Only if the blinds are about to double up next hand and you're UTG there's some resemblance of logic to what you're saying. This was not the case and Khan was in the SB.


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That's what I was thinking as well, but thought I was missing something.

There was only one time all night (Kravchenko, I believe) when a player should have been in push/fold mode and he doubled up very soon after that.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
I said this once in the thread, and nobody listened.

One thing none of you are factoring in, is how few hands they are playing per hour, and it's impact on the players stacks/m's/whatever.

They played 14 hands per hour. This is kind of like playing a turbo online. RainKhan doesn't have the liberty of waiting around for "more +cEV" situations. This is +cEV. +$EV. And +EV in general.

This push is so amazingly standard it's not even funny. The only discussion I can see from this hand is Rahme's fold...but given how tight RainKhan had been playing, I think his fold is okay.

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1.) The "turboness" of an event should have a very minor effect on one's play in the current hand, unless it is totally absurd like blinds double every 4 hands. When the blinds go up, deal with it then. We went through this discussion about 2349781234789123 times in the STT forum after turbos became the standard format for STT pros.

2.) It takes 3 levels = 6 hours for the blinds to double at the ME final table. Even at 14 hands an hour, this is not a turbo structure. So even the argument that you should accept a lower minimum edge does not hold water. There is plenty of time. Look how long the damn thing lasted even after so many early bustouts.

3.) Khan's push is far from "amazingly standard". It is "highly marginal". It is a very tough spot. You are not giving up much either way. There are many, many factors to consider. See the detailed analysis above. "Amazingly standard" would be calling with QQ+. Please don't overstate whatever case you may have.

Other than that... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]