c-betting turn with a draw

[thorleif]

I bet here nearly all the time. lots of crap peeling this flop, especially if villain is fishy (6x 7x type hands) which they will fold to this turn card.

[rzk]

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actually a bluff costs only a third of a bet since if villain calls, a third of the bet he puts in is yours. So even in a small pot like this, risking only a third of a bet to win a 12x larger pot UI certainly seems worth it.

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i completely agree, but i have a question. given this analysis, when is it ever correct to follow the maxim "bet with no outs, check with outs"?

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i'll try to answer my own question: when the probability of villain folding is such that:

1. we'd be willing to pay a maximum of X bets for a chance to make him fold and this X is greater than 1 (which makes it profitable to bluff with no outs)
2. the chance that he'll check-raise combined with the chance that he'll call make the average amount we would risk by betting with outs and calling a check-raise greater than X (or, more precisely, greater than X times [the probability of missing our draw] ).

[lastcardcharlie]

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Yeah bet. A more showdownable flush draw hand like Axd I would be more inclined to get passive here.

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Thanks all for explaining so clearly why I goofed the hand. Is then a reasonable general rule of thumb in this situation:

Draw + no showdown value = bet;

Draw + showdown value = think about checking?

[Absolution]

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I'm adjusting to short-handed from full-ring and I seem to find very few spots to not double c-bet.

It seems to be that it is far more likely to be a heads-up pot by the turn when playing short-handed (ldo?) and I can't bring myself to not bet vs one opponent.

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Which is why I love hitting TAGs on the turn in short-handed.